According to an ARISE NEWS opinion poll, Republican candidate and incumbent US President Donald Trump, may surprise pundits and succeed in his re-election bid against challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party.
President Trump trailed ahead of election day in many polls, including those conducted by CNN, Fox News, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal.
Despite the gap reducing as election day approached, the four polls still see the incumbent trailing by an average of 10 percentage points.
The ARISE NEWS poll conducted over five days on the news channel’s website closed 2300hrs GMT on Monday, November 2, with President Trump getting 503 of the 900 votes cast (representing 55%) against Biden’s 397 votes.
There’s a caveat though: The ARISE poll which was available to a global audience, asked respondents who they thought would win the election, not who they would vote for, since many won’t be eligible to vote.
ARISE NEWS reached out to its diverse audience via satellite TV and digitally, and encouraged them to share their opinion.
Votes could only be cast once from any particular device.
The ARISE NEWS Channel is streamed live on arise.tv and across social media channels.
The website – arise.tv – gets most of its viewership from Nigeria, the US and the UK. All three combine for 80% of views.
South Africa, Canada, Germany, France, Kenya, Ghana and the UAE round off the Top 10.
It is important to remember that the US president is elected by the Electoral College, not by popular vote, and national polls conducted in the US can only approximate the popular vote, which doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory.
This was the case when President Trump prevailed over Hilary Clinton – his opponent in the 2016 election – despite losing the popular vote.
Trump will be hoping for a repeat, by beating Biden in ‘swing’ states where the margin is much closer.
Pennsylvania is likely to be the most important state for both candidates. President Trump simply can’t afford to lose the state he flipped in 2016, upsetting Clinton by a mere 44,000 votes out of six million cast, despite pollsters predicting victory for the Democratic Party candidate.
Georgia and Florida are two other states Trump won in 2016 but is also trailing in, according to the polls.
It is vital he also wins these states for him to improve his odds of getting re-elected.