The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has said financial markets and the international community have largely written off Nigeria’s opposition political parties as unserious, with investors already pricing in the prospects of President Bola Tinubu securing a second term and expecting continuity in his economic reforms.
This is just as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, also said policy consistency and transparency were essential to sustaining investor confidence, as improvements in economic and foreign exchange stability created better conditions for long-term investment.
Meanwhile, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has called on President Tinubu to explain the $12.4 billion gap, an equivalent of about N16.5 trillion, in Nigeria’s external accounts identified in the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update.
Oyedele and Cardoso spoke at the closing press briefing of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, where the CBN governor said policy consistency would be critical to attracting long-term capital, sustaining economic stability and accelerating growth.
On his part, Oyedele argued that investors’ expectations of continuity under Tinubu had influenced their assessment of Nigeria’s economic outlook, including their response to opposition proposals to restore fuel subsidies.
“In all the meetings I have had, I came to a conclusion that the markets, including the domestic market, which you can read from the capital market, and the international market, have largely written off the opposition in Nigeria as being unserious. That is why they have not priced in the proposed return of subsidy,” he said.
He added that any indication that the president intended to restore the subsidy would immediately be reflected in market prices.
“So, maybe the international and domestic markets are aware about who is sincere about Nigeria and what direction they should travel,” he said.
“As I said, the markets and the international community have been pricing in the prospect of a second term for the President, and they expect continuity in the reforms.”
The minister’s comments followed repeated questions from investors about whether the government would sustain its policies as Nigeria approaches another election cycle.
He said concerns about possible policy reversals had featured prominently in his engagements with investors in Thailand and during two visits to London, particularly over whether electoral pressures could force the administration to abandon its reform agenda.
“Throughout the meetings we have had this week, as well as those I attended before now, including two visits to London to meet investors, one question has repeatedly come up: Are you going to reverse your reforms? Are you under pressure because of elections?” he said.
According to Oyedele, the government remained committed to the reforms, which he described as necessary to restore macroeconomic stability and lay the foundation for sustainable growth.
He said the next phase of the economic programme would focus on translating the gains in stability into stronger investment, lower financing costs, job creation and improved economic opportunities for Nigerians.
Oyedele said private investment had increased twentyfold since the reforms began, rising from about $300 million in 2023 to $6 billion in 2026.
He also highlighted improvements in Nigeria’s external position, saying net reserves had risen from barely $3 billion to more than $45 billion, representing a fifteen-fold increase.
Oyedele ruled out a return to fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates, warning that reversing the reforms could undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flight and put renewed pressure on the naira.
“Let me be clear: there will be no return to fuel subsidies or multiple exchange rates,” he said.
“If, for any reason, Mr President were to say today that we were considering bringing back fuel subsidies, what happened in Indonesia would be child’s play in comparison,” he said.
“At the end of the day, capital would leave because investors understand what such a decision means.”
He argued that capital flight could intensify pressure on the foreign exchange market and weaken the naira, with the consequences ultimately borne by ordinary Nigerians.
“When capital leaves, the foreign-exchange market will come under pressure, and the naira will crash. The exchange rate could move to N3,000, N3,500 or N4,000 to the dollar,” he said.
Oyedele said such a development would worsen the economic pressures facing households.
The minister also defended the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s recent temporary reduction in petrol retail margins, insisting that it was a commercial decision rather than a subsidy financed with public funds.
“The recent temporary reduction in the retail margin on fuel was a time-bound commercial decision by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited to reduce margins and support Nigerians,” he said.
“It is not a subsidy paid for with public funds.”
He explained that a company’s decision to reduce its profit margin to lower prices should not automatically be classified as a subsidy.
“If you offer a discount by reducing that profit margin, how does that become a subsidy?” he asked.
Cardoso: Policy Consistency, Transparency Critical to Investor Confidence
Meanwhile, Cardoso has stressed that policy consistency and transparency were essential to sustaining investor confidence, as improvements in economic and foreign exchange stability created better conditions for long-term investment.
Cardoso said Nigeria was seeking to deepen financial cooperation with China to attract more Asian investment into its markets and improve cross-border payments, settlement arrangements and trade finance.
He disclosed that discussions with the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, had focused on practical ways to strengthen cooperation among financial institutions in both countries.
Cardoso said China’s developed payments infrastructure offered lessons for Nigeria, while stronger financial links could facilitate trade and investment between the two economies.
He said the discussions would be followed by technical engagements during his forthcoming visit to Beijing, where officials would examine specific areas of cooperation and identify initiatives capable of delivering practical results.
The CBN governor said Nigeria was particularly interested in attracting Chinese capital into its financial markets, noting that investment in Nigerian financial instruments had remained limited despite the substantial liquidity available in China.
“Finally, bear in mind that, despite the considerable liquidity available in China, there has not been much investment in Nigerian financial instruments over time,” he said.
“This could be an opportunity to change that trajectory and generate greater interest from Asian markets in Nigerian instruments and African instruments generally.”
Cardoso said the initiative formed part of a broader effort to strengthen Nigeria’s financial relationships with Asian economies and expand the pool of capital available to domestic markets.
World Bank Report: ADC Asks Tinubu-led Govt to Explain ‘Missing’ $12.4bn
Meanwhile, the ADC has called on President Tinubu to explain the $12.4 billion gap, equivalent to about N16.5 trillion, in Nigeria’s external accounts identified in the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update.
In a statement issued yesterday by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the party said Tinubu owed Nigerians a clear account of the discrepancy, especially as families struggling with the cost-of-living crisis were forced to account for every naira.
Citing the report, the ADC said Nigeria recorded a $12 billion current-account surplus and $6.2 billion in net financial inflows in the first half of 2026.
The party said these inflows should have strengthened the country’s reserves, but the report instead identified a $12.4 billion gap.
Abdullahi said the World Bank attributed the gap, in part, to oil export earnings that were not repatriated. He added that the report noted that the repatriation of export proceeds remained limited, partly because Nigerian oil had been pledged against several long-term loans.
“The scale is staggering,” the ADC said.
“This unexplained gap is larger than the entire current-account surplus for the same period. It is about 5.6 times the $2.2 billion Nigeria attracted in foreign direct investment. In naira terms, it is almost a quarter of the N68.32 trillion 2026 federal budget.
“This cannot be dismissed as a minor accounting discrepancy. President Tinubu welcomed this report. He cannot celebrate one part of the report and stay silent on a gap bigger than the surplus that he and his government are celebrating.
“Due to President Tinubu’s failed policies, families across Nigeria are forced to skip meals and account for every naira just to survive. Meanwhile, money that could have eased their hardship is currently unaccounted for. Tinubu owes Nigerians an explanation.
“Sacrifice cannot be compulsory for everyday citizens while accountability remains optional for the government that is in charge of our collective resources.”
The ADC called on the federal government to publish a full public reconciliation of the $12.4 billion gap and disclose all oil-backed loans and pledged crude commitments.
It also demanded updated net reserve figures and clear evidence that higher revenues were improving essential services such as health, education and power.
“President Tinubu must open the books. Nigerians have sacrificed enough. We deserve answers,” the party said.
Nume Ekeghe , and Chuks Okocha
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