The special adviser to the African Democratic Congress National Chairman on Research, Policy, and Strategy, Chille Igbawua, has dismissed former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal’s projection that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would lose the 2027 presidential election, describing it as lacking a scientific basis and saying it amounted to nothing more than a prayer rather than an evidence-based projection.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Igbawua argued that Lawal offered no facts or analysis to support his prediction, maintaining that while everyone has the right to pray, such personal wishes cannot be presented as credible electoral projections.
“I think the statement that this projection need not be commented upon is a right one. When you just say you are praying—as a matter of prayer, everyone has a right to pray—he said, ‘I pray he loses. He will surely lose. I pray he loses.’ That is not a scientific approach to a projection that you can argue against. So it becomes difficult to argue against a person who has no basis for making a projection.
“I believe that ADC has its programs well set out. I believe that we have one of the most robust manifestos of any political party in Nigeria at the moment. We have a clear-cut policy document that we are going to work on, and our objective has always been—and has not changed—to rescue Nigeria from the drift that we are witnessing continually. We are working on what it takes to win an election. So when we speak about winning, we’re not speaking just rhetorics; we’re speaking from the work and the analysis we’re doing,” he insisted.
Addressing the exit of former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi from the ADC, Igbawua said Obi was never part of the original opposition coalition that later adopted the party, noting that he only joined after the coalition had concluded its processes and chosen the ADC as its platform.
“The project started long, long before Peter Obi came in. Let us not make the mistake of thinking that Peter Obi was part of this opposition coalition movement that transmuted into the ADC—he was not. He only came in December last year, 31st of December last year, after everything had been done, and we had gone through all the processes of what we needed to do. We had chosen a platform before he came in,” he asserted.
Responding to criticism over the ADC’s presidential primaries, Igbawua defended the process as constitutional and compliant with the Electoral Act, acknowledging that while it was not perfect, it reflected a greater commitment to internal democracy than the candidate selection processes of other political parties, which he said largely relied on consensus or outright appointments.
“And of course, they are all wrong. Everything that we did from the beginning up to this point is in accordance with the constitution of the party, in accordance with the Electoral Act, and in accordance with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. So when somebody makes such allegations, he should justify them.
“I do not insist that this was the cleanest primaries that ever held, but I also agree that there is no political party that has subjected itself to the processes that we did. Certainly Labour Party did not; APC did not. They simply just selected candidates. Then others didn’t even attempt it. So there’s no basis for criticizing that. It is because we opened ourselves to the democratic process, that’s why you can assess us. We’re saying whereas it may not be perfect, what we did had a closer appearance of internal democracy than what any other party in Nigeria today has had,” he maintained.
Commenting on the Obi-Kwankwaso alliance, Igbawua questioned the logic behind combining the individual strengths of both politicians to project electoral success, arguing that assessments should be based on more than simply adding previous election figures together. He said the political calculations behind such projections require deeper analysis beyond vote aggregation.
“The issue is, particularly bearing from the assessment of Babachir Lawal, his own assessment of the two political personalities individually is that each of them is a disaster. I hope you heard that too. He said Peter Obi is a disaster, Kwankwaso is a disaster on their own. But when paired together—that is his personal opinion—when paired up, they can get 70%. Now, I do not know the arithmetic where two disasters make a success. That is his own assessment. I’m quoting him; I’m not saying something new.
“Sometimes assessment is by counting votes in previous elections. So maybe you count Peter Obi’s votes in the 2023 elections and also count Kwankwaso’s votes in the 2023 election.”
Igbawua further argued that comparing an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket against Atiku alone was an incomplete assessment, insisting that political calculations must consider the full tickets.
He pointed to Rotimi Amaechi’s previous performance in the APC presidential primary as evidence that the Atiku-Amaechi ticket also carries significant political weight, adding that Lawal’s assessment was driven more by personal opinion than scientific analysis.
“That is when you are saying Atiku has no running mate. You are putting two together on that ticket; you must put two on this ticket too. Remember that Rotimi Amaechi contested presidency under APC and came second, so he’s not a push-over either. So if you put a ticket, you must also count the ticket as two people coming together.
“Of course, if somebody has been in a project and had expectations which have failed, he’s bound to be frustrated, and I understand why the former SGF expressed frustration, which he did when he was leaving the party. But I don’t think that a personal opinion about an individual, just because you’re praying that somebody loses an election, is a sufficient scientific assessment of that person’s candidacy. The two of them put together certainly are stronger, even when you talk about historical perspective. But I’m saying now, we know what is going on and we know what we are doing towards achieving our goal. I believe that it is absolutely faulty to suggest that an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is stronger than an Atiku-Rotimi Amaechi ticket. Certainly not,” he argued.
Acknowledging Atiku Abubakar’s political standing, Igbawua emphasised that the former vice president has a stronger electoral record than the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket, noting that they had contested against each other in the past and Atiku emerged ahead. He, however, redirected attention to the ADC’s policy agenda, saying the party’s focus is on building a governance framework driven by its manifesto rather than individual personalities.
“Yes, he has good standing. That the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket. Certainly, certainly. I mean, they’ve contested against one another in the past and he came out top. Now, we are doing better things. We’re also having a program that I think by the time we—in the next 10 or so days—bring out what we have in our kitty for the citizens.
“What the ADC is trying to do is to remove the weight of governance from individuals and put it on the political party. That’s why we have a manifesto which candidates will have to follow. We have a clear-cut security program. For introductory purposes, the idea of every program that we have in our policy document is to fix what is broken, to build what is missing, and to ensure that governance delivers clear, measurable outcomes,” he disclosed.
On fuel subsidy removal, the special adviser said the ADC does not oppose the policy itself but believes the government has failed in managing the resources generated from it. He argued that the key issue is accountability and how the funds saved from subsidy removal are being deployed to cushion the impact of hardship on Nigerians.
“The issue is that fuel subsidy had been removed. Nobody argued against it; most people, the majority, did not argue against the removal of fuel subsidy. But how you do it is what matters. You are doing it for the good of the people, but when it turns out that what you have done is not well thought out, such that you just bring hardship to the people, that’s what we are all complaining against.
“Now, this government has not accounted for the outcomes or the dividends of fuel subsidy removal. Neither in terms of bringing out figures to say ‘this is what has come, and this is how it has been deployed’—because if you remove subsidy, you have more resources coming in, and therefore you should have a project or a program, or deploy them in a manner that reduces the hardship caused by this removal of fuel subsidy. I don’t object to fuel subsidy removal, and I don’t think anybody is coming to say we will re-enact or re-introduce fuel subsidy. But the management of resources arising from the fuel subsidy is what the cry is about,” he said.
Addressing concerns about Atiku Abubakar’s appeal among younger voters, Igbawua said the former vice president is not contesting as an individual but under the ADC platform, which he described as having strong policies on youth and women inclusion.
He highlighted the party’s efforts to give young people and women leadership opportunities, adding that Atiku also has a history of working with younger politicians.
“I think that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not standing as an independent candidate. The African Democratic Congress has one of the best policies for youth inclusion, as well as female inclusion. You will notice that we have deliberately, as a policy, brought a lot of young men into the leadership of the party. We’ve always prided ourselves that the Deputy National Secretary of the party—just a 30-something-year-old young girl—is the first to hold that kind of position. I don’t think any other party thinks it is worth giving that kind of opportunity to youth.
“So, ADC is giving a lot of opportunities to youth. We are also doing a lot with women—gender sensitivity by including women in governance. As we speak, we have six Deputy National Chairmen of the party, two of them are females. We have a youth leader who is female, outside the youth leader who is male, to emphasize the need that these age brackets also have gender relationships. So, I think that we are looking at this as a political party, not as an individual.
“But besides, Atiku has a lot of young men around him. He has always done that in the past, and he still keeps a lot of young men around him. So, the ADC is going out as a political party that has a clear policy of youth and women inclusion, and when our documents are out, you’ll begin to see that,” he assured.
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