Finally, the die is cast. January 16, 2027, like the 2023 presidential run, promises another three-way electoral battle.
And, as the countdown gathers momentum, the major political parties are already assembling their campaign machinery, preparing for what could become one of the most consequential presidential contests in Nigeria’s recent history.
Katsina has 3,876,051 registered voters in 2026, an increase of 359,332 from 2023. But despite Buhari’s enormous influence in his home state, Tinubu lost narrowly to Atiku in 2023. Atiku obtained 489,045 votes to Tinubu’s 482,283 – a margin of only 6,762.
That narrow result makes Katsina one of the most competitive northern states.
Governor Dikko Radda and the APC establishment will seek to prevent an opposition breakthrough. Atiku, however, has already demonstrated that he can compete successfully in the state.
Security challenges affecting farming communities, the cost of agricultural inputs and rural livelihoods could prove more decisive than the sentiments of 2023.
Katsina may well be one of the clearest tests of whether the political goodwill associated with Buhari can survive as an independent advantage for Tinubu.
Jigawa: Can the APC Protect Its 2023 Advantage?
Jigawa’s register has increased from 2,351,298 in 2023 to 2,807,811 in the new register, a substantial 19.42 per cent growth. Tinubu won the state in 2023 with 421,390 votes against Atiku’s 386,587. The difference was 34,803 votes.
The APC, therefore, has an existing advantage to defend, supported by its political structures in the state.
However, the relatively narrow margin means Jigawa cannot be taken for granted. Rural economic conditions, agricultural productivity, local leadership networks and the mobilisation of newly registered voters will be critical.
An opposition gain of several tens of thousands of votes could change the result.
Zamfara: The Weight of Political Heavyweights
Zamfara has 2,224,017 registered voters, up from 1,926,870 in 2023. Tinubu won the state with 298,396 votes, ahead of Atiku’s 93,978.
The president’s support network includes the campaign DG, Yari, Matawalle, Shinkafi and other prominent politicians. Their collective experience could make Zamfara one of APC’s more promising northern battlegrounds.
Yet, the challenge here is particularly severe. For communities affected by banditry, kidnappings and displacement, politics is frequently measured by the ability to travel, farm, trade and sleep without fear.
The APC political advantage will be tested against those realities. An endorsement by a former governor may open doors. It cannot, by itself, make an insecure road safe.
Sokoto: A Narrow 2023 Defeat, an Enlarged Register
Sokoto now has 2,633,113 registered voters, compared with 2,172,056 in 2023 – a remarkable 21.23 per cent increase, the highest proportional growth among the states.
Atiku won Sokoto with 288,679 votes against Tinubu’s 285,444. Just 3,235 votes separated the candidates.
Governor Ahmed Aliyu’s APC administration and the political influence of former governor Aliyu Wamakko provide Tinubu with considerable organisational strength.
But the margin from 2023 suggests that neither side can afford complacency. A small shift in turnout, particularly in rural communities, could determine the state’s presidential winner.
Kebbi: Opposition Advantage Meets Incumbency
Kebbi has 2,309,503 registered voters. Atiku obtained 285,175 votes in 2023, defeating Tinubu, who received 248,088.
Governor Nasir Idris and the APC political establishment will seek to reverse that outcome.
However, Kebbi’s agricultural economy, insecurity in vulnerable communities and the purchasing power of rural households create important electoral pressure points.
If Atiku maintains his existing support while expanding into dissatisfied APC constituencies, Kebbi could remain favourable to him.
This is coupled with the growing influence of a former Minister of Justice and Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, who is also the governorship candidate of the ADC in the state. His persona may alter some of the existing equation.
There seems to be a shifting sentiment in his way against his perceived persecution by the Tinubu administration. This is certain to count in its small way. But a disciplined APC mobilisation effort could also make the state competitive.
The North-West, therefore, cannot reasonably be assigned wholesale to any one candidate.
Of its seven states, Kano presents the most dramatic realignment, Katsina and Sokoto were extraordinarily close in 2023, and Kaduna has developed a formidable opposition challenge.
Yet, the APC controls important state machinery and remains capable of recovering lost ground if it buckles up its chin strap. That is precisely why the zone matters so much.
North-East:
Atiku’s Advantage, Shettima’s Burden
If the North-West is the largest electoral battlefield, the North-East may be Atiku’s strongest regional opportunity.
The six states now have a total of 13,965,475 registered voters, up from 12,542,429 in 2023. Atiku won five of the six states in the last presidential election. Tinubu won only Borno.
The vice-president’s personal electoral credibility will consequently come under particularly close scrutiny, again in 2027.
Adamawa: A Home Advantage for Atiku
Adamawa has 2,431,146 registered voters. Atiku secured 417,611 votes in the state in 2023, while Tinubu obtained 182,881. Obi received 105,648. Indeed, Tinubu secured approximately 25.01 per cent of valid votes in Adamawa, barely exceeding the constitutional spread threshold.
As Atiku’s home state, Adamawa remains a difficult territory for the APC. The president’s task will be to retain enough of his 2023 coalition to remain competitive, while Atiku seeks to widen the margin.
Bauchi: A Large Opposition Reservoir
With 3,012,547 registered voters, Bauchi is the North-East’s largest electoral state. Atiku won it in 2023 with 426,607 votes against Tinubu’s 316,694.
The PDP longstanding political structure, associated with Governor Bala Mohammed, remains an important part of the state’s political history, although the new party alignments require the opposition to rebuild or negotiate its support networks.
Tinubu is not without opportunities. His 2023 tally demonstrates that he has an existing constituency in the state. But he would need to do considerably better to overturn Atiku’s advantage.
Borno: Shettima’s Political Scrutiny
Borno has 2,765,165 registered voters, and Tinubu won the state in 2023 with 252,282 votes, compared with Atiku’s 190,921. That represented approximately 54.2 per cent of valid votes.
The result owed much to APC’s established structure, including the influence of Governor Babagana Zulum and Vice-President Shettima.
Whether that majority can be repeated is an important question, but not one that can be answered credibly by just declaring that Shettima will fail to deliver 50 per cent.
Borno’s electorate will also be judging progress against insurgency, displacement, resettlement and economic reconstruction.
As the president’s running mate, Shettima carries a dual burden: he must defend the administration’s record across the North while protecting his own state – Borno’s electoral base.
Gombe: A Steep APC Deficit
Gombe has 1,768,566 registered voters. In 2023, Atiku polled 319,123 votes against Tinubu’s 146,977. That was a substantial difference.
The APC benefits from Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya’s incumbency, but the size of the opposition’s previous advantage suggests the president will require an exceptional improvement in voter mobilisation to win the state.
Taraba: A Three-Way Competition
Taraba has 2,254,380 registered voters. Atiku won in 2023 with 189,017 votes, Obi obtained 146,315 and Tinubu received 135,165.
The vote distribution demonstrates that Taraba is more competitive than a simple North-East versus South-East electoral narrative would suggest.
Its diverse religious, ethnic and local political interests could produce a vigorous contest among the ADC, NDC and APC.
The Obi-Kwankwaso ticket may also complicate Atiku’s attempt to consolidate opposition votes.
It is worthy of mention of that Atiku did well Taraba in 2023 because certain forces like General TY Danjuma were visibly onboard. But now that it appears allegiance has switched, it is yet to be seen how that development will impact Atiku’s standing.
Yobe: Atiku’s Strong Ground, But Not an Automatic Victory
Yobe has 1,733,671 registered voters, up from 1,485,146 in 2023. Atiku obtained 198,567 votes in the previous election against Tinubu’s 151,459. His advantage is clear from the historical result.
However, the APC enjoys an incumbent political structure under Governor Mai Mala Buni, a politician with experience in party organisation.
Yobe is therefore a state in which Atiku starts from a favourable electoral precedent, but one where Tinubu still has meaningful routes to improving his performance.
This is because some of those who made the Atiku victory possible like Governor Buni, alleged to have struck a deal, had since made up with the ruling party and and president and things may no longer stay the same.
Collectively, the North-East presents Atiku with a stronger historical foundation than the APC.
Yet, Tinubu has a vice-president from the zone, established governors and influential political networks. The eventual result will depend on whether these institutions can overcome the opposition’s demonstrated electoral strength.
North-Central:
Where Margins May Decide Everything
The North-Central region is perhaps the most politically diverse of the three northern zones. Across Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Kogi and Kwara States, the latest register stands at 15,233,744 voters, excluding the FCT.
In 2023, Tinubu won four of the six states, while Obi won Plateau and Nasarawa. But a closer reading of those results reveals several vulnerabilities.
Benue: A Victory of Just 2,096 Votes
Benue has 3,057,225 registered voters. Tinubu won the state in 2023 with 310,468 votes. Obi followed with 308,372. The margin was only 2,096 votes. That is almost the definition of a competitive state.
Governor Hyacinth Alia’s APC administration, the influence of Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, and internal rivalries within the governing party will all matter.
But the dominant local issue may be insecurity, especially attacks on farming communities, displacement and the agricultural economy.
The 2027 election could turn on whether the electorate believes the government has addressed these concerns.
Plateau: Can Endorsements Reverse an Obi Victory?
Plateau has 2,906,570 registered voters. Obi won with 466,272 votes in 2023. Tinubu secured 307,195 and Atiku 243,808. The result was a powerful indication that northern voting preferences are not homogeneous.
Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s participation in the APC North-Central endorsement of Tinubu illustrates the significant political realignment that has occurred since 2023.
But changing party affiliation or endorsing a candidate does not automatically change the voting preferences of the electorate.
Plateau’s communities have continuing concerns about insecurity and displacement. Their assessment of government performance may be more important than the position of political leaders.
Nasarawa: Another State Tinubu Lost
Nasarawa has 2,137,699 registered voters. Obi received 191,361 votes in 2023, defeating Tinubu, who obtained 172,922. Atiku followed with approximately 147,000.
Governor Abdullahi Sule’s APC machinery offers Tinubu an opportunity to reverse that defeat. However, Nasarawa is sufficiently diverse and competitive to resist confident predictions.
Its proximity to Abuja, expanding urban communities, traditional political structures and security concerns could produce a fragmented electoral outcome.
Niger: A Critical APC Stronghold
Niger has 2,983,476 registered voters. Tinubu won it in 2023 with 375,183 votes against Atiku’s 284,898.
Governor Mohammed Umaru Bago’s political structure and APC’s existing electoral base give the president an advantage.
However, unceasing insecurity in parts of the state and the disruption of farming activities as with other parts of the north, remain consequential issues.
Niger will be a test of whether incumbent political organisation can coexist with widespread concerns about security and livelihoods without suffering significant electoral damage.
Kogi: The APC Organisational Test
Kogi has 2,232,398 registered voters. President Tinubu secured 240,751 votes in 2023, comfortably ahead of Atiku’s 145,104.
The governing party retains substantial institutional advantages, supported by Governor Usman Ododo, his godfather, Yhaya Bello, and the established APC networks.
Nevertheless, Kogi’s ethnic diversity, the contest for local political influence and the appeal of alternative presidential tickets could affect turnout and voting patterns.
The APC begins from a position of strength, but the margin it eventually delivers may be as important as whether it wins. This does not leave out the fact that the Bello factor is not one to gloss over, given his combative disposition to election, more so that he is on the ballot.
But some former PDP leaders, who have pitched tent with Atiku and others in the PDP that are still sympthetic to him, are sure to create some balance should there be any eventuality.
Olawale Olaleye
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