An Advocacy Officer of the West Africa Democracy Solidary Network, (WADEMOS), and a prominent election observer, Austin Aigbe, has said the opposition merger is already facing fragmentation over divergent positions by opposition leaders on fuel subsidy and the proposed four-year presidency arrangement.
“We know what has happened with ADC, the rest is history. And that the movement of Peter Obi and etc. then created another nuance to this opposition fragmentation.It is already fragmented. I think it’s fragmented. They should go into the election.
“What I think is even though the convergence is nice to say, ‘We do four years alone.’ And the only person that is speaking about four years is Peter Obi, who has gone into coalition with the former governor of Kano State. I’m sure the former governor of Kano State says, ‘Okay, after your four years, then it gives me an opportunity to become president.’ Now you are bringing Peter Obi to a conversation for one term. Or are you telling Atiku to once again wait for another eight years, or are you telling Atiku to go now while Peter Obi waits until when it’s time for Kwankwaso?”
Speaking in an interview on ARISE NEWS on Wednesday, Aigbe said the opposition needed to converge around critical issues and agree on key areas, including fuel subsidy removal, before forming a united front.
“The opposition needed is to converge around isues, and their postulation should be agreement on critical areas like fuel subsidy removal.”
He cited the G100 summit, where the conflicting positions of opposition figures such as Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar on fuel subsidy removal highlighted the ideological differences within the coalition, adding that the opposition’s planned convergence was already “late” because Atiku had begun efforts towards opposition unity about two years ago, but the initial attempt failed.
“I feel even though Honorable Nnenna said it is better late than never, I actually think it is late. Late because the presidential candidate of the ADC today began something about two years ago for some form of opposition connection. They were expected to have come with a political party called the AGA, that failed, and they moved on to the ADC to try to use the ADC as the platform for that convergence.”
The election observer further said the opposition’s political calculations must go beyond simply adding the votes recorded by Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2023, noting that each major contender has a different electoral strength that cannot be ignored.
“The math, I understand that some pundits agree that if you add those two numbers, it will give you 13 million or thereabouts votes, then it would have beaten the 8 million votes. If you look at Atiku’s number, it’s real, don’t undermine it. If you flip to an incumbent, an incumbent also has a number because of his appointments across the country. Peter Obi also has a convergence which you don’t also have to undermine.”
Pointing to Atiku’s argument that the South has occupied the presidency for longer since 1999 while the North has had fewer years in power, Aigbe said the zoning debate could further complicate the opposition coalition, particularly as Atiku remains its major northern presidential contender.
“By Atiku’s own mathematics that since 1999, the South has produced number one leader of this country. By the time Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be ending his regime or re-contesting in 2027, the South would have completed about 18 years or thereabouts. He’s saying, if you flip the coin to the North, we’ve only had two years of late Yar’Adua, eight years of Buhari, that’s 10 years. So, there is banking on that number. So, there are many numbers that exist in the landscape. And don’t forget, the major candidate from the North, presidential, is Atiku.”
He added that political calculations around regional representation and the candidates’ individual electoral bases would be crucial to the coalition’s chances of challenging the incumbent.
“About the representation of other candidates. Is it right to undermine these other candidates? We agree that there are 22 of them. But if you go to the public, the court of public opinion… Because we started taking 2019, many candidates in the race, few weeks to election, they are adopting other candidates.”
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