The former political advisor to President Olusegun Obasanjo, Akin Osuntokun has said that fragmentation within Nigeria’s opposition parties is weakening their chances ahead of the 2027 presidential election, warning that the absence of a united coalition among key figures such as Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku is giving the ruling APC a clear advantage.
“I think it amounts to indiscipline on the part of the opposition parties not to be able to come together to form a coalition. The major opposition are fragmented. And of course, definitely, the chances of either of those two opposition parties making any headway in 2027 has become much more difficult,” he warned.
He further argued that Nigeria’s current political structure places excessive power in the presidency, creating instability and weakening governance at other levels of authority.
According to him, this over-centralisation continues to fuel political tension, insecurity, and repeated debates around zoning and power rotation, while distracting from the more urgent need for deep constitutional reform.
“Many issues were taken from concurrent legislative. The constitution has three tiers, the exclusive, concurrent, and residual power. A lot of the concurrent powers have been emptied into the presidency. There is an element of military dictatorship syndrome in it. Because of the constitution that we have, we have an over-centralized security system. As far as I’m concerned, elections and all this talk about opposition, they are ephemeral. The real issue that concerns Nigeria, strategically and even tactically, is the issue of constitutional reforms,” he said.
Speaking on Nigeria’s evolving political process, Osuntokun said that the growing reliance on consensus within political parties reflects deeper structural flaws in the country’s democratic system.
“I don’t know if it’s safer. It depends on who then becomes the consensus candidate. There are conflicting visions about what lies ahead for Nigeria, and this explains this kind of fragmentation. Secondly is that the factors that determine leadership, political leadership in Nigeria, are not such that will produce a good candidate,” he argued.
He further stressed that Nigeria’s focus should shift away from personalities and toward systemic reforms that limit excessive concentration of power at the federal level.
“I think you have to depersonalize as much as possible, the process of electing leadership. You look at the system,” he suggested.
Citing insecurity and governance failures as drivers of public frustration and declining trust in the state, Osuntokun said Nigeria must clearly define the type of democracy it intends to practise.
“We have to decide what kind of democracy we want,” he stated.
According to Osuntokun, conflicting political narratives and inconsistent responses to insecurity point to deeper structural problems, which he links to the abandonment of earlier constitutional arrangements after military rule.
“When you are in this kind of society, you have these conflicting visions. Look at the independence constitution that we had. Look, the people who made that constitution, they were not mindless, right? It was the best under the circumstances that suits Nigeria. A military coup came in 1966, rubbished that, and we have normalized since then, what they said they came to do.”
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