The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global renewable power capacity will increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, with Africa and Asia set to lead the growth for the first time outside China.
According to the agency’s latest report titled ‘Renewables 2026’, the projected 4,800GW addition is almost 60 per cent more than was added in the previous six-year period.
The forecast, coming amid unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets since the outbreak of the Iran war, showed that stronger policy support and intensified energy security concerns are driving faster deployment of renewables across Africa, India, South-east Asia, and the Middle East.
According to the report, Solar Photovoltaic (PV) is set to account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity growth to 2031, followed by onshore wind.
The IEA said that for the first time, the amount of renewable power capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match the amount added in advanced economies in the forecast period.
China, according to the report, will remain the largest contributor to the global increase in renewable power capacity, but its share is set to decline from over 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent over the forecast period, amid changes to its renewable energy policies.
Also, india is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031.
Growth is also increasing across South-east Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Across these regions, the amount of renewable capacity added in the 2026-2031 period is forecast to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
The report noted that the growth is not only driven by major installations by utilities and developers, but also directly by consumers, with households and small businesses increasingly turning to more affordable rooftop solar PV systems amid high fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies.
These small-scale installations, it stressed, have already helped improve electricity services for around 70 million households worldwide.
On transport, the IEA made a forecast that the use of renewable energy for transport will rise by more than 60 per cent by 2031, by which point it will cover 6 per cent of the transport sector’s energy demand worldwide.
Besides, renewable electricity used by electric vehicles will accounts for around 45 per cent of this increase, while biofuels will make the second-largest contribution, it said.
As an immediate response to high fuel prices and availability challenges, several countries, it stressed, have raised blending mandates, which set the minimum proportion of biofuels that has to be blended into petrol or diesel sold at the pump. The forecast for biofuels was revised up by 40 per cent compared with last year’s report.
The report also highlighted the importance of secure and diversified supply chains, noting that India is emerging as an important alternative source of supply, with its share of global solar PV module manufacturing expected to almost double to 17 per cent over the next five years.
In his comments, IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, stressed that while in the past environmental sustainability was driving the growth of the renewable sub-sector, it is now energy security that is pushing it.
“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels.
“The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world.
” This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it,” the IEA chief pointed out.
However, the IEA further warned that enhancing power system flexibility has become critically important for energy security, with the amount of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide increasing by 60 per cent over the past year to 3,000Gw, four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to the grid last year.
According to the organisation, deployment of battery storage has been accelerating in many countries, offering an important way to increase the flexibility of electricity systems rapidly.
Emmanuel Addeh
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