Yiaga Africa Board Chairman, Hussaini Abdu has warned that Nigeria risks having leaders elected by only a small share of eligible voters as low participation and partisan attitudes continue to shape confidence in the electoral process.
Speaking during an interview with ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Abdu said the concern was especially important ahead of the 2027 presidential election, with Yiaga Africa’s latest voter intentions survey showing that only 41% of respondents said they were certain they would vote and had already chosen a candidate.
“And that concerns us, that we don’t have leadership elected by extreme minorities. I think that’s the concern.”
He said the survey also showed that political affiliation affects how Nigerians view the credibility of elections. “People who are more partisanly affiliated to the parties that are in power, whether at state or at national level, seem to have more confidence in the elections and the electoral process than those who are more affiliated or who have sympathy for the opposition in that regard.”
Abdu said Nigerians are approaching the 2027 election with both optimism and apprehension.
“Nigerians are viewing it with very high level of optimism and also apprehension.”
He said the optimism comes from the opportunity elections provide for Nigerians to vote for their preferred candidates and change or retain leadership. “Optimism in the sense that it provides opportunity for them to vote their candidate, to change leadership in some cases, or to confirm leaders in other cases.”
But he said concerns about the outcome of previous elections continue to influence how citizens approach the 2027 poll. “And then they can also be apprehensive. With my vote count, ultimately, what happened in the last elections, they always make reference.”
Abdu explanied the low turnout recorded at the last general election was a major concern for the organisation, particularly because it raises questions about the level of public participation in choosing Nigeria’s leaders.
“But if you look at the last general elections, only 27 percent of Nigerians came out to vote. That’s quite low, even in our own electoral history, it is extremely low.”
He emphasised the figure should concern Nigerians because elections with very low participation could produce leaders without broad electoral support. “And that concerns us, that we don’t have leadership elected by extreme minorities. I think that’s the concern.”
The Yiaga Africa chairman said the organisation’s voter intentions survey was designed to understand the gaps affecting participation. “So when we do studies like this, the idea is for us to have a very good understanding of where the gaps are, and what we need to do as a collective to respond to those gaps and ensuring that our elections become more credible, and that more Nigerians are participating in voting of people who lead us.”
Abdu said willingness to vote does not necessarily translate into actual turnout.
“Security will end up being an ultimate definer of whether they come out to vote or not.”
He said voters raised two main security concerns the wider security situation in the country and the risk of violence during and after elections. “And there are two dimensions of security in these conversations. The first layer of security or insecurity issues has to do with the general insecurity problem or security crisis in the country and how that could impact on access and mobility for people to actually be able to vote.”
Abdu said many Nigerians register to vote in their home communities even when they live and work elsewhere. “And if you know this country very well, like you all know, is that sometimes people register to vote in their villages and localities and hoping that before election they will travel back home from, you know, their various stations or where they work, they want to travel back home to vote.”
He said election-related violence was another major concern among respondents.
“About 60% of them fear that the elections could result to violence. And there are two layers of this violence. Violence during the elections period and violence post-elections. And that is enough to scare them.”
Abdu believed that distrust in the Independent National Electoral Commission remains a consistent finding in Yiaga Africa’s surveys and is not limited to the current leadership of the commission. “A significant proportion of them actually don’t trust the INEC, which is our election campaign. And that’s a trend. This is what we have seen consistently. And it’s not about this particular INEC.”
He said similar concerns extend to the judiciary because of its role in determining electoral disputes and outcomes. “The same number of people also don’t trust the judiciary. And we also know the role of the judiciary as continues to play in our elections and our electoral process.”
Abdu argued voters also appear to have greater confidence in election technology than in the people responsible for conducting elections.
“We also know that a significant proportion of Nigerians trust the machine more than men.”
He said voters want electronic processes, including the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System. “Meaning that they are more inclined to electronics, voter co-operations, using the IRF and the BIVAs. They trust it more and they want that to guide our elections.”
He affirmed Nigerians would have greater confidence in election results if electronic processes were deployed effectively. “And people think that they will trust the elections results more if the electronic processes or election technology is deployed more effectively.”
Abdu defended the sample size used for the voter intentions survey. “The size is not about percentage, but it’s about character and representation.”
He restated the survey was sufficiently representative to provide an understanding of how Nigerians view the coming elections.
“But typically, it is rigorous enough, it is representative enough to actually have a feel of what Nigerians think about these elections.”
Abdu said the survey was based on stratified random sampling across the geopolitical zones and states. “Basically, what we did, the margin of error is about 3.5. And we’re very clear that what we had is a stratified random sampling. And we tried to ensure that there is good proportionality across the different geopolitical zones.”
He maintained that the organisation also considered differences in population and voter numbers across states while ensuring different segments of society were represented. “We also recognised that there are disparities in terms of the sizes of the state, and the sizes of each of those in terms of population and the number of voters.”
Abdu also raised concerns about delayed funding for INEC. “INEC needs the resources. INEC activities involve massive procurement. Massive. It’s huge.”
He warned that delays in procurement could affect the movement of election materials and personnel and create problems close to election day. “And this procurement process, if you don’t start early enough, is going to affect elections logistics. And elections logistics is actually the real elections.”
Abdu insisted that Nigeria had previously experienced election postponements linked to logistical problems and argued that timely funding was necessary to avoid a repeat.
“And many of you will be aware that there are times when we are even close to elections and elections, maybe a day to election, we postpone elections. We postpone elections.”
He attributed such failures to the commission not receiving funds early enough despite having its plans in place. “And those postponements are basically because the logistics fails. And the failure of logistics was the fact that INEC didn’t get the resources on time. They had all their plans, but there was not funds.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
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