United States and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement Thursday to extend the ceasefire in the three-month-old American/Israeli war against Iran by 60 days and launch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.
Iran did not immediately confirm any deal, and the official stated that President Donald Trump had yet to sign off on it, AP reported. A separate report stated that modalities for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and removing all mines along the route were also being discussed.
The emerging memorandum of understanding came as the fragile ceasefire in the war appeared to be wavering. The latest flare-up in fighting happened less than a day earlier, when Kuwait intercepted missiles fired from Iran, according to U.S. Central Command.
The memorandum makes clear that Iran will not be able to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran will have to remove all mines from the vital waterway within 30 days, according to the official, who was not authorised to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
The U.S., meanwhile, would gradually lift its naval blockade on the strait, the conduit for about a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas before the war. Its closure has sent oil prices skyrocketing, driving up fuel prices around the world. The U.S. would also agree to relax sanctions, allowing Iran to sell more of its oil.
Among the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire is what will happen to Iran’s highly enriched uranium, the official said. Iran has 440.9 kilogrammes (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60 per cent purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Iran has not publicly committed to giving up the stockpile, which is believed to be buried under a trio of nuclear sites that were badly damaged by U.S. airstrikes last year, the AP report added.
Nuclear analysts have said Iran might consider China or Russia, which have close relations with Tehran, to be a potential acceptable third party to take possession of the enriched uranium as part of a potential deal. But Trump said Wednesday that he “wouldn’t be comfortable” with such a plan.
A second U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the broad outlines of an agreement had been reached but stressed that until Trump signed off on it, there was no deal. The official said there still were questions about whether Trump will accept the proposal.
Kuwait had earlier announced an attack on its territory, and Iran said it had retaliated for strikes earlier in the week by firing on a U.S. base in a Gulf state it did not name. The Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry condemned Iran for what it called “blatant aggression,” and U.S. Central Command called the attack on one of America’s top allies in the Persian Gulf an “egregious ceasefire violation”.
The exchange unfolded after U.S. officials said in Washington that American forces launched more strikes on Iran, shooting down four one-way attack drones that posed a threat around the strait and hitting an Iranian ground-control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone.
Washington and Tehran have repeatedly accused each other of violating the seven-week ceasefire and have traded strikes throughout the week. But they haven’t returned to full-scale hostilities and kept negotiating.
Meanwhile, World Economic Forum (WEF) Chief Economists’ Outlook stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would approach the severity of the COVID-19 crisis if it persisted in the second half of 2026.
The outlook published Thursday in Geneva warned that the global economic outlook hung in the balance between geopolitical headwinds and Artificial Intelligence (AI) boost. The outlook said 94 per cent of the chief economists it surveyed expected global inflation to rise as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up energy and food costs and disrupted supply chains.
It also said 92 per cent of the chief economists expected greater AI adoption over the coming year, even though the optimism about the speed of its productivity impact across industries had cooled.
The report said, “Chief economists already rank the current closure duration of the Strait of Hormuz as significantly more disruptive than last year’s tariff turmoil. If the closure persists into the second half of the year, they expect its impact could approach the severity of the COVID-19 crisis, compounding effects across global supply chains, energy and food costs.
“An overwhelming 94 per cent of the surveyed chief economists expect global inflation to increase over the coming year.”
The report said global economic outlook had deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, adding that nearly nine in 10 chief economists surveyed expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months, reversing the cautious optimism seen at the start of the year, as conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns over a major global economic shock.
Managing Director of WEF, Saadia Zahidi, said only months ago, the chief economists’ community was cautiously optimistic but the conflict in the Middle East changed that.
“The longer the disruption lasts, the heavier the long-term cost for those who can least afford it,” Zahidi said.
The report added, “Inflation expectations have climbed sharply in sub-Saharan Africa, now the highest of any region surveyed, while Europe faces mounting stagflation risks as growth weakens and inflation fears mount.
“By contrast, India and the United States are expected to remain relatively resilient, supported by domestic demand and investment.”
The report said most of the chief economists did not expect a recession within the next 12 months, even as they saw little prospect of the economy growing more resilient in the near term.
It stated, “Much will depend on the length of the disruption: a shorter shock could leave room for recovery, while a prolonged closure would deepen the strain on the global economy. Financial markets are expected to come under increasing strain, with 79 per cent of respondents anticipating rising volatility in private debt markets over the next year, as signs of stress in private credit emerge.
“Seventy-four per cent also expect public debt market volatility to increase and 68 per cent expect stock market volatility to increase.”
Besides, the report said AI optimism was high, but cooling, as it remained a source of tailwinds in the global economy, with 92 per cent of chief economists expecting greater artificial intelligence adoption over the coming year.
Emmanuel Addeh and Dike Onwuamaeze
Follow us on:
