Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have increased more than seven-fold since 2023, with the commissioning and expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery driving a dramatic shift in the country’s refined products trade, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said.
According to a new analysis by the EIA, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of just 79,000 bpd in 2023.
Of the 561,000 bpd shipped in the second quarter, 350,000 bpd was exported to international markets, compared with only 46,000 bpd in 2023, the report added.
The EIA said the surge was underpinned by the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery in January 2024, which has substantially increased the availability of refined petroleum products in the Nigerian market.
“With the increased supply of petroleum products in Nigeria from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA stated.
The development represents a major change from the situation before the Dangote refinery came on stream, when Nigeria’s existing state-owned refineries shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products by sea to various parts of the country and international destinations.
The EIA analysis, based on data from Vortexa Analytics, showed that the increase in product shipments occurred in two major phases: first following the start of Dangote refinery operations and subsequently after maintenance and expansion work at the facility was completed in February 2026.
The refinery’s crude distillation capacity increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd following the maintenance and expansion programme. At the same time, disruptions to petroleum product trade through the Strait of Hormuz tightened global supplies, creating additional international demand for refined products from alternative suppliers, including Nigeria.
The growth in domestic refining has also been accompanied by a steep decline in Nigeria’s seaborne imports of petroleum products.
The EIA said Nigeria imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023, but seaborne imports had fallen to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026, representing a reduction of more than 270,000 bpd, or at least 67.5 per cent, over the period.
At the same time, intra-Nigerian shipments of petroleum products rose substantially, suggesting that a larger proportion of refined products is now being moved from domestic refining and distribution hubs to other parts of the country.
According to the EIA, intra-Nigerian shipments averaged 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and only 33,000 bpd in 2023. The 211,000 bpd recorded in Q2 2026 therefore represented a 160,000 bpd increase, or about 485 per cent, from the 2023 level.
The EIA specifically linked the development to the Dangote refinery, noting that by shipping petroleum products to other parts of Nigeria, the facility had reduced the country’s dependence on imports.
According to the US organisation, Nigeria’s growing refining capacity has also changed its position in international petroleum product markets, with Europe emerging as a major destination for its refined products.
The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and only 15,000 bpd in 2023, representing an increase of 115,000 bpd, or about 767 per cent, compared with 2023.
In the same vein, exports to other African countries also increased, reaching nearly 120,000 bpd in Q2 2026, compared with 89,000 bpd in 2025.
The figures indicated that Nigeria has moved beyond its traditional role as a major crude oil exporter and importer of refined petroleum products, increasingly becoming a supplier of refined fuels to both regional and international markets.
The EIA said the growth in Nigeria’s exports was occurring at a time when petroleum product supplies from other regions had been constrained, increasing the importance of Nigerian refined products in international markets.
The expansion of Nigeria’s refining capacity could accelerate further, with Dangote Group planning to double the refinery’s capacity through the addition of a second 750,000 bpd crude oil distillation unit by 2028.
If implemented, the planned expansion would take the refinery’s crude distillation capacity to about 1.45 million bpd and significantly increase Nigeria’s potential refining surplus.
Emmanuel Addeh and Peter Uzoho
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