Former Nigerian diplomat, Joe Keshi, has said the ongoing Iran war could end swiftly if the United States decides to bring the conflict to a close, warning that premature claims of victory and rushed negotiations risk prolonging the crisis and deepening its global economic impact.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Wednesday, Keshi argued that US President Donald Trump appears eager to exit the war but is equally driven by the desire to declare victory.
“The war could be over if the Americans decide they want to end it. I sense that President Trump is eager to get out of the war, but I think the problem is that he is more eager to claim victory, even before the talks are concluded,” he said.
Keshi stressed that resolving a conflict of such magnitude requires time and careful diplomacy, not hurried negotiations.
“Diplomacy and trying to negotiate such a complex situation is not instant coffee. It requires patience, clear understanding, and far more detailed engagement than this desire to achieve results within a short meeting,” he said.
He called for an extension of the ceasefire to allow meaningful dialogue, noting that previous agreements between the United States and Iran took years to reach.
“The last peace deal between the United States and Iran took two years and involved the European Union, the United Nations, and other international organisations. Today, Trump wants to go it alone, yet complains that allies are not helpful. How can they be helpful when they are not invited?” Keshi added.
On the economic implications of the conflict, particularly the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, Keshi blamed US actions for worsening the situation, arguing that sanctions and restrictions have limited Iran’s options.
“The Americans have imposed sanctions and are holding critical Iranian assets. If they put on the table that they will lift sanctions and release those funds for reconstruction, on the condition that the port is opened, the Iranians might accept, because they need resources,” he said.
“You cannot seize their assets, block their economy, and then prevent them from using the only viable source of income they have left. That is not negotiation; that is an imposition of will.”
He noted that Iran, as an “old civilisation,” would resist coercion, warning that military assumptions about quick victories have already proven misguided.
“They are very proud people and very determined. Just as the Russians miscalculated in Ukraine, the Americans are discovering that it will be difficult to take Iran out completely,” he said.
On whether the US can end the war without losing face, Keshi maintained that Trump’s focus on declaring victory could complicate exit strategies.
“Trump wants a win. Nothing short of ‘I have won’ will satisfy him, and unless he gets that, I don’t see an easy way out,” he said.
He criticised the US approach to negotiations, saying it prioritises predetermined outcomes rather than compromise.
“You don’t go to a negotiation with what the president wants. You go to find how to narrow the differences between both parties,” he added.
Keshi also dismissed claims that the war would cement long-term US global dominance, pointing instead to historical patterns of rising and falling powers.
“History has taught us that empires rise and fall. There is no empire that has lasted forever. The Americans may even accelerate their own decline,” he said.
He identified China as an emerging global force but noted that Beijing is focused more on economic expansion than military dominance.
“The Chinese want to conquer the world economically, not act as the policeman of the world. But what they are doing now suggests that America may be falling behind,” he said.
On global power balance, Keshi said the world is increasingly shaped by the influence of both the United States and China.
“For now, the world’s hegemony lies between the Americans and the Chinese. Russia’s role is diminishing, but these two powers will likely determine global direction in the coming years,” he said.
Addressing tensions in the broader Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Lebanon, Keshi argued that the United States cannot be seen as a neutral mediator.
“The U.S. has never been an honest broker in the Middle East, especially when it comes to Israel,” he said.
He blamed longstanding US support for Israeli actions against Iran, noting that previous American administrations had resisted such moves.
“Since the 1980s, Netanyahu has sought to bomb Iran, but past US presidents said no. Donald Trump is the one who has allowed this to happen,” he said.
Keshi called for a more inclusive peace process involving regional and global stakeholders.
“The best way forward is a comprehensive peace agreement involving Lebanon, other Arab nations, the European Union, and international agencies. The actors need to be expanded for any meaningful resolution,” he said.
He also warned of looming global economic consequences if the conflict persists, citing projections of a potential recession.
“The World Bank is already predicting global economic problems, even recession. If they agree to a ceasefire, allow trade to continue, and negotiate sincerely, it would be good for everyone,” Keshi said.
Boluwatife Enome
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