A senior United Arab Emirates official has warned that Iran cannot be trusted to manage the Strait of Hormuz unilaterally, underscoring deepening regional mistrust as efforts to end the conflict between Tehran and Washington remain stalled.
Two months into the war, the strategic waterway remains largely closed due to an Iranian blockade, while the US Navy continues to restrict Iran’s crude exports. The disruption has choked off roughly 20 per cent of global oil and gas supplies, sending energy prices higher and fuelling fears of a global economic slowdown.
Although a ceasefire has technically been in place since April 8, tensions escalated after reports that Donald Trump was to be briefed on potential new military strikes aimed at forcing Iran back to negotiations. The development briefly pushed oil prices to a four-year high on Thursday.
Iran has since activated its air defences and is preparing for a broad retaliation in the event of an attack. Two senior Iranian sources indicated that Tehran expects any US strike to be short but intense, potentially followed by Israeli action.
Washington has yet to clarify its next steps. Trump said earlier this week that he was dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal, while mediator Pakistan has not announced a date for renewed talks.
The conflict, which intensified following US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, has already drawn in regional actors. Iran retaliated by targeting US bases and affiliated infrastructure in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
Highlighting Gulf concerns, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stressed the importance of international oversight in safeguarding the vital shipping lane.
“The collective international will and provisions of international law are the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait,” Gargash said.
“And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors,” he added.
Meanwhile, Trump faces a legal deadline under the War Powers Resolution of 1973 to either end the war or justify its continuation to Congress. However, a senior US administration official suggested the deadline may pass without consequence, arguing that hostilities effectively ceased with the April truce.
Despite this, markets remain volatile amid uncertainty over the stalled negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose again on Friday to over $111 per barrel, marking a weekly gain of 5.7 per cent after peaking at $126 on Thursday — its highest level since March 2022.
Iran has cautioned against expecting swift diplomatic progress. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said talks would take time to yield results.
A senior Revolutionary Guards official warned that any renewed US attack would trigger “long and painful strikes” on American positions in the region. Echoing that threat, Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi declared: “We’ve seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
Trump, however, reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons and expressed confidence that fuel prices would fall rapidly once the conflict ends.
“The price of gasoline… will drop like a rock,” he said, adding that Iran’s economy was “a disaster”.
Tehran maintains that its nuclear programme is strictly for civilian purposes.
Analysts caution that while the conflict has deepened Iran’s economic crisis, the country may still be capable of sustaining a prolonged standoff in the Gulf despite US sanctions and the blockade on its energy exports.
Reports by Axios indicate that one option under consideration by US military planners involves deploying ground forces to seize parts of the strait and reopen it to commercial shipping. Other options include extending the blockade or declaring a unilateral victory.
In parallel, the US is exploring a post-conflict framework. A State Department cable has invited partner nations to join a proposed maritime coalition, dubbed the “Maritime Freedom Construct”, aimed at ensuring safe navigation through the strait.
However, countries including France and Britain have signalled that any such involvement would only come after hostilities fully cease, reflecting the fragile and uncertain path toward de-escalation.
Boluwatife Enome
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