ARISE Director of News and Politics Editor, Sumner Sambo, says the outcome of the Osun State governorship election has exposed the internal contradictions within the All Progressives Congress and the broader dynamics of Nigerian politics ahead of the 2027 general election.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, Sambo said the developments surrounding the election should prompt Nigerians to pay closer attention to the political realignments taking place ahead of 2027.
“This has really shown the underbelly of Nigerian politics, and in all of this, I will ask Nigerians to look deeply into what’s happening because what’s happening right now cannot easily be related to what they’re expecting in 2027.
“Let’s be very vigilant because if you look at the intrigues that led to this election, you will see that there’s an attempt to actually bring a third party, or the PDP in the South-West, to the fold of the APC, as led by President Tinubu, who is the political leader from the region.”
Sambo compared the situation to the political manoeuvring surrounding the 2012 Ondo State governorship election, recalling an article by Professor Niyi Akinosho titled Jagaban Returns to Lagos Empty-Handed.
He said the article followed the outcome of the election in which then-Governor Olusegun Mimiko retained the governorship on the platform of the Labour Party, despite efforts to bring him into the fold of the Action Congress of Nigeria.
“It reminds me of an article written by Professor Niyi Akinosho in 2012, where the title of that political opinion was ‘Jagaban Returns to Lagos Empty-Handed’.
“That political opinion came as a result of the outcome of the 2012 governorship election in Ondo State, where then-Governor Olusegun Mimiko, President Tinubu then, as you know, had wanted to bring the Labour Party and its governor then, Olusegun Mimiko, to the fold of the ACN after the 2011 election.
“But despite all he did, I remind Mimiko that he brought him up in 2007 when it was difficult to win the election, Mimiko refused. And despite all that he did, with almost similar things that happened in this election, the people of Ondo State went out and, of course, they cast their vote for the Labour Party. PDP came second and ACN came third then.”
On Osun, Sambo said there had been efforts to persuade Governor Ademola Adeleke to join the APC as part of an attempt to consolidate President Bola Tinubu’s political influence in the South-West ahead of 2027.
“This is the same intrigue that had happened towards this election. You’ll see that there were attempts to actually see how Governor Ademola Adeleke will be brought into the APC to conclude what looks like Tinubu’s stranglehold of South-West politics and all of that, to strengthen him ahead of the 2027 general election.
“But the dynamics here then changed. The governor was willing to come in, but some forces within Tinubu’s camp were not willing to come in.
“And then, of course, as I said earlier on, the deal was already made for Governor Adeleke to actually join the APC. And if he doesn’t join, Tinubu will allow him to actually sail through.”
Sambo also referenced comments by APC figures suggesting that an agreement had been reached, while pointing to Adeleke’s meeting with President Tinubu as part of the political developments preceding the election.
“That’s why you would have heard the likes of Kayode saying that, I mean, agreement is agreement. Yes, the governor’s camp may not necessarily be aligned to certain things that must have happened.
“But of course, when you saw Governor Adeleke visiting with his elder brother to see President Tinubu, there were so many things that were actually pushed on and placed on the table.”
He said President Tinubu had subsequently demonstrated statesmanship, despite the political intrigues surrounding the election.
“President Tinubu has actually gone ahead to recognise all of this, sacrificing himself and then making sure that statesmanship comes on board, despite all the intrigues by people like Oyetola.”
Sambo attributed part of the APC’s defeat to what he described as internal political manoeuvring during the party’s preparations for the election.
“What did you expect when the former national secretary of the APC was humiliated? That Senator Yola Mishore, someone who had been a senator before and all of that, and suddenly they said he did not qualify to governorship, no, to even qualify to participate in the APC governorship primaries, that because he didn’t have the right qualifications, he didn’t have 5% that are paid, you know, their dues as party members.
“And you see people like Senator Babajide Omoworare. These are strong people, a former presidential adviser and all of that, alongside a former deputy governor too. They all removed these people using all sorts of subterfuge politics and intimidation, and said that these persons were not qualified and only allowed these two persons, including Adebayo Adelabu, who eventually emerged as a governorship candidate. So all of this contributed to the defeat of the APC.”
He said the voting pattern in Osun East, which he identified as the political base of some of the affected APC figures, was markedly different from previous elections.
“Look at the results from Osun East, where Babajide Omoworare and Yola Mishore come from. You see that the results are technically different from that of the last elections, the last governorship election compared to now.”
Sambo urged Nigerians to continue putting pressure on political parties while allowing political alliances to develop, and commended the Independent National Electoral Commission for its conduct of the election.
“In a nutshell, this is a situation where we have to technically look at it and say that Nigerians should continue to put pressure on the party, and then political alliances will continue to be built.
“The best thing to be done is for INEC also to be allowed to play its role. INEC’s role was very commendable. The polls opened at the right time, at least at 8:30 a.m., where they had about 87% of the polls opening.
“So INEC needs to receive its flowers this time around. And it’s not only when the governing party loses that there’s democracy. The opposition should be very careful of the rhetoric. They must work and work together.”
Turning to Governor Adeleke’s post-election posture, Sambo said the governor must ensure that the political environment remains conducive ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
“You see that what happened is the personality of the governor himself, the sort of branding that the governor brought to this election that has brought out some of the things that we have seen here.
“But I can tell you that we need to also warn the governor to be careful of the rhetoric that’s coming out now, because he must also create the same conducive environment for voters to come out and exercise their voting franchise on January 16, 2027, when the presidential election is holding.
“It must be done within a conducive atmosphere and not want to put himself out there to displease voters and then please President Tinubu because of the underlying agreements that they would have reached. These are politicians. These are the things that they do.”
On the opposition ahead of 2027, Sambo said the relationship between former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi could produce a formidable political combination.
“Kwankwaso actually saying that the relationship between himself and Peter Obi is one that will not make him to be a spectator. Yes, I actually see him as someone who will emerge as a very strong vice president, if he does become one, in the mould of Atiku Abubakar when he was vice president to Olusegun Obasanjo.”
Sambo compared Kwankwaso’s political strength with that of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, saying a potential Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would require Obi to contend with a strong political personality.
“And then, you know, it’s the same fear that made Obasanjo not to pick Atiku Abubakar in 1999, because he was afraid he was going to pick someone who would not make him to sleep with one eye closed.
“But unfortunately, once he picked Atiku, Atiku became his own man. And so Kwankwaso is a very strong character.
“I mean, compare him to Vice President Kashim Shettima. And then, of course, taking a look at VP Yemi Osinbajo, you’ll see that if he does emerge as vice president and win the election in 2027, Peter Obi has to really be on his toes, because he really looks like someone who will not be stepped aside and pushed aside in government.”
Sambo also pointed to emerging alliances among opposition presidential hopefuls, but questioned whether such alliances could produce a candidate capable of challenging President Tinubu.
“The factional presidential candidates, as I have said, of the Accord Party, coming together, these are the sort of alliances that we need.
“But even if they do agree to step down for one person, can that one person be able to withstand a very strong candidate like President Tinubu of the APC? I think they need to do more.”
He cited calls for a proposed G100 summit, while raising concerns over whether the initiative would provide a level playing field for opposition figures or be used to advance the interests of a particular candidate.
“That’s why you will have seen the likes of Salihu Lukman calling for this G100 summit.
“But of course, there are fears also that that G100 summit is being called to actually back Atiku Abubakar and not to create an even ground for a genuine presidential candidate to emerge.”
Sambo warned that the opposition could repeat the outcome of the 2023 election if it failed to agree on a formidable candidate.
“Those are the fears, as we head into the 2027 election, unless the opposition commits to presenting a major formidable candidate. If not, the results of the 2023 elections may be before us.
“So Nigerians will be expecting very sound alternatives, not just telling us that they want to defeat President Tinubu. They want to present a single candidate against the APC.
“What can they do better?”
He also said the APC must address its internal challenges, arguing that President Tinubu could turn the Osun defeat into political capital ahead of 2027.
“For the APC, they need to put the house in order. And I can see that President Tinubu is trying to do that.
“Despite his defeat in Osun State, I can tell you that President Tinubu will look like someone who will be able to make capital out of what has happened in Osun State rather than the losses.”
According to Sambo, the APC remains politically strong ahead of 2027 unless the opposition succeeds in presenting a single candidate.
“The consensus is that the APC remains very strong ahead of 2027, except the opposition is able to present a single candidate.
“But like Rufai had asked earlier, who will step down for who? Well, it’s left for us to watch.”
With campaigns expected to begin on August 19, Sambo urged Nigerians to focus beyond political rhetoric and demand concrete commitments on issues affecting their lives.
“As the campaigns begin on Wednesday, August 19, Nigerians should look out for what can be done to change the situation.
“How can they get more jobs created for youth? How can our hospitals be improved? How can women participate more in politics? Let’s not allow the politicians to drive the narrative.
“Absolutely. Because politics is so important to be left to politicians alone. All hands must come and be on deck.”
Boluwatife Enome
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