Arise Director of Politics and former political advisor to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Akin Osuntokun, has said President Bola Tinubu remains surprisingly competitive in the North ahead of the 2027 presidential election, despite economic hardship, insecurity and predictions of declining support in the region.
He made this known during an interview on Arise News on Monday, while analysing regional voting patterns ahead of the 2027 presidential election, noting that Tinubu appears competitive in several northern states despite concerns over insecurity and economic hardship.
“Looking at all the three candidates, they’re relatively doing well in the North, I can’t see any surprise. The only aspect of it that I’m surprised at is that the president is fairly competitive in the North, at least against the background of the kind of aggressive posturing and saying it won’t get anything there.
“But out of the three candidates, the presidential candidate—I think the president is likely to sleep well tonight on the basis of what that map depicts for the president. It doesn’t conform to the kind of totalitarian disavowal of Tinubu that we have been hearing for a long time.”
Osuntokun said Tinubu is trending as a potential winner in Borno State, alongside Kwara and Kogi, adding that the president remains competitive in several other northern states despite concerns over insecurity and economic hardship.
“He’s even trending as a winner in Borno State. Borno State, Kwara, and Kogi State, and in almost 9 or 12, or let’s say the 9 other states, it’s competitive.
“So, for me, I think he did fairly well. And this time around, he will probably get more votes from certain areas that he didn’t get that kind of sufficient votes in the 2020 election. So, he’s going to do much, much better, you know, in Lagos State this time around, and the votes in Lagos are quite substantial.
“The insecurity and all whatever, hardship and things like that, but that it is there, and yet you are getting this kind of trend there.
“That’s precisely what I was asking when the question against his performance was raised, using the metrics of security, hardship, and thing, that poses a lot of challenge, yet this is the result, this is the train you are getting there.”
Speaking on the impact of Governor Abba Yusuf’s defection to the APC on Kwankwaso’s grassroots support, Osuntokun said voters’ loyalty to a popular political movement could outweigh a governor’s institutional power in determining electoral outcomes.
“Both matters, but in the end, it is the grassroots that—I mean, that determines, that’s the higher factor.
“If you have that, the governor cannot muscle—the voters go and vote, regardless of whatever institutional power that the governor holds. It’s not comparable. So, it’s not a question of the governor having institutional power, it’s not going to make a dramatic difference in the outcome of election in any state.”
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