Sweden’s governing right-wing bloc remains behind the centre-left opposition ahead of the country’s September 13 parliamentary election, although the latest opinion poll shows the gap has narrowed since June.
A survey conducted between July 29 and August 10 and published by Svenska Dagbladet showed the opposition parties with a combined 50.6% support, compared with 46.9% for the governing bloc.
The poll, conducted by Demoskop among 2,016 respondents, suggests Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson could return as prime minister after four years in opposition, potentially replacing incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of the Moderate Party.
The election campaign has focused on the cost of living, national security, immigration, crime and energy supplies.
The four opposition parties increased their combined support from the 48.9% they secured in the 2022 election. By comparison, the governing bloc’s 46.9% support is down from the 49.6% it received four years ago.
The government also faces pressure from its junior coalition partner, the Liberals, who received just 2.4% support in the latest poll. The party must secure at least 4% to win seats in the Riksdag, Sweden’s parliament.
The Social Democrats remain Sweden’s largest political party, with 30.2% support, only slightly below their 30.3% result in the 2022 election.
Meanwhile, Kristersson’s Moderate Party fell to 16.8%, compared with 19.1% in the previous election.
Despite the opposition’s lead, it remains uncertain which parties Andersson would rely on to form a government if the centre-left bloc wins the election.
A change in government could bring increased spending on welfare programmes, although major shifts in immigration policy, defence or Sweden’s support for Ukraine are not expected.
The Sweden Democrats, which secured 20.2% in the latest poll compared with 20.5% in 2022, have also indicated they would seek cabinet positions for the first time if the right-wing bloc retains power.
Party leader Jimmie Åkesson has said the Sweden Democrats would seek several significant ministerial positions as part of any future governing arrangement.
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