Kristersson’s growing cooperation with the Sweden Democrats represents a major shift from his earlier position. In 2018, he assured Holocaust survivor Hedi Fried that his Moderate Party would not work with the anti-immigration party, which was then largely isolated from Sweden’s political establishment.
That position changed ahead of the 2022 election, when Kristersson relied on the Sweden Democrats to help the centre-right bloc return to power. The party backed his three-party minority government, providing the parliamentary support needed to govern while gaining significant influence over policies on immigration and crime.
With Sweden heading to the polls on Sunday, Kristersson has indicated that a victory for the right-wing bloc could open the door for the Sweden Democrats to enter government for the first time.
His government has pursued tougher immigration policies, including measures aimed at ending permanent residency for asylum seekers and increasing efforts to remove people who are no longer entitled to remain in Sweden.
It has also taken a harder line on crime, particularly youth violence. A proposal to detain some of the most serious 13-year-old offenders was eventually abandoned, while the government shifted its focus towards tougher measures for criminals aged 14 and above. Sentences have been increased and police have been given broader powers.
“Several major issues were not working properly in Sweden,” Kristersson said in August while presenting his party’s election manifesto.
The government has cited a sharp decline in asylum applications and a significant fall in fatal shootings as evidence that its policies are delivering results.
Kristersson’s political transformation has been particularly striking because he once represented a more liberal position on immigration. As leader of the Moderate Party’s youth wing, he supported relatively open borders before becoming party leader in 2017.
At the time, Sweden’s centre-right parties remained divided over whether to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats, making it difficult for the bloc to regain power.
Kristersson ultimately adopted a more pragmatic approach, breaking with the long-standing refusal by mainstream parties to work with the Sweden Democrats. The move helped pave the way for the right-wing bloc’s return to government in 2022.
Since then, Kristersson has sought to maintain stability within the governing alliance despite differences among its partners and controversies involving some political appointments. One adviser, for example, came under scrutiny after being accused of leaving classified documents at a hotel.
His relatively calm leadership style has helped him manage tensions within the coalition.
“He talks about being the adult in the room, and, by and large, he has succeeded in being that,” said Jenny Madestam, a political scientist at Södertörn University.
But critics say Kristersson’s cooperation with the Sweden Democrats has given the far right greater influence over national policy and pushed Sweden’s political centre further to the right, particularly on immigration.
Birgitta Ohlsson, a Centre Party politician and former European affairs minister, has warned that political shifts can happen quickly, drawing on her experience of living in the United States during Donald Trump’s presidency.
Opinion polls suggest the election could be closely contested, with the left- and right-wing blocs running almost level.
Even if the right-wing bloc wins, however, Kristersson could face a difficult political calculation. The Sweden Democrats could potentially win more votes than his Moderates, raising questions about which party would wield greater influence within the governing coalition.
Most political analysts expect Kristersson to remain prime minister in such a scenario, but his position could become significantly weaker if the Sweden Democrats emerge as the dominant party on the right.
“The Sweden Democrats would effectively hold the power,” said Marie Demker, a professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg.
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