ARISE News analyst Dayo Sobowale has warned that electoral violence in Nigeria is often driven by public distrust in the fairness and credibility of the electoral process rather than mere political aggression.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE News while reacting to Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele’s warning that no Nigerian should die because of elections, Sobowale described the statement as timely but insisted that political leaders must also address the deeper causes of election-related violence.
“Electoral violence begins when people lose trust in the process,” he said.
According to Sobowale, violence usually emerges when politicians and supporters believe elections were manipulated or unfairly conducted.
“It is when people feel elections have been rigged or they have been treated unfairly that violence grows,” he stated.
He emphasized that while violence should never be justified, frustrations arising from disputed electoral outcomes often fuel political unrest.
“I’m not legitimising it, but there’s a cause for it,” he said.
Sobowale said that Bamidele’s warning came shortly after contentious party primaries, suggesting that the message was likely directed at aggrieved aspirants and political supporters.
“The target audience are those who lost the primaries,” he stated.
He acknowledged that the warning against electoral violence was responsible and necessary but questioned whether political actors would genuinely commit themselves to fairness and democratic integrity.
“I hope it is made in good faith,” he said.
Sobowale referenced former President Goodluck Jonathan’s acceptance of defeat after the 2015 presidential election as an example of political maturity capable of preventing instability.
“He said Nigerians should not die because of his ambition,” he stated.
According to Sobowale, free and fair elections remain the strongest safeguard against violence and instability.
“If elections are free and fair, people will applaud the process,” he said.
He stated that democratic systems work best when voters trust that leaders emerge through credible elections and can be peacefully removed if they fail to perform.
“If they perform, re-elect them. If they don’t, eject them at the polls,” he stated.
Sobowale also linked unemployment, poverty, and frustration among young people to the growing ease with which politicians recruit political thugs during elections.
“These are scenarios that fuel recruitment for violence,” he said.
According to him, citizens become more vulnerable to political manipulation when governments fail to improve living conditions or fulfil campaign promises.
“It is non-realisation of promises that leads inevitably to violence,” he stated.
Sobowale further criticised political actors accused of sponsoring violence while simultaneously preaching peace.
“If you cheat somebody and then tell the person to take it easy,” he said while questioning the sincerity of some political appeals against violence.
He warned that unresolved grievances from party primaries could continue generating tension ahead of the 2027 elections.
“Some people are still incensed over the primaries,” he stated.
Sobowale also urged politicians who win elections or primaries to avoid humiliating defeated opponents.
“Those who have won should be magnanimous in victory,” he said.
According to him, arrogance and triumphalism after elections often deepen bitterness and hostility among political rivals.
“That’s what creates bad blood,” he stated.
Sobowale concluded that preventing electoral violence in Nigeria will require more than public warnings, stressing that credible elections, fair political processes, economic inclusion, and responsible leadership remain essential to rebuilding public trust and ensuring peaceful democratic participation.
Ojo Triumph
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