China will scrap tariffs on imports from almost all African countries from Friday, expanding its zero-duty policy across the continent—excluding only Eswatini, which maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
The move broadens an existing scheme that, as of December 2024, covered 33 least-developed African nations. It will now apply to 53 countries and remain in force until 30 April 2028, although its future beyond that date is unclear.
Beijing has touted the initiative as a landmark step, boasting that it is the first major economy to offer unilateral zero-tariff treatment to Africa. However, analysts say the policy may do little to address the structural challenges behind Africa’s persistent trade deficit with China.
“China is positioning itself as the trade liberaliser and Africa-friendly economic partner, in contrast to Donald Trump and the US,” said Lauren Johnston, a senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute.
Her remarks come amid shifting global trade dynamics. The United States had imposed tariffs of up to 30% on some African nations in August, although most have since been reduced to 10% after a Supreme Court ruling struck down many of the duties.
Johnston noted that the expansion of China’s zero-tariff regime could boost African agricultural exports, which will “help to elevate rural incomes, improve rural productivity, and ultimately to reduce hunger and poverty”.
Despite this potential, trade between China and Africa remains heavily skewed in Beijing’s favour. Chinese exports to the continent far exceed African exports to China, and the gap continues to widen.
Last year, Africa’s trade deficit with China rose by 65% to about $102bn, with exports to China largely dominated by raw materials such as crude oil and metallic ores. Key trading partners include Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Africa.
Johnston warned that the benefits of a uniform duty-free policy across a diverse continent would likely be uneven.
“More developed, industrialised economies like South Africa and Morocco will be better positioned to expand exports,” she said.
Other analysts argue that tariff reductions alone cannot resolve deeper economic constraints.
“Many African economies still face structural constraints, such as limited industrial capacity, weak logistics, and a reliance on raw commodity exports, which tariff reductions alone cannot address,” said Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa.
Alfred Schipke, director of the East Asian Institute in Singapore, said the short-term impact would be limited.
“Short-term economic impact will likely be modest and concentrated in African countries that already have export capacity,” he said.
“Over the long term, however, the potential could be more meaningful, especially if African countries are able to expand production, diversify exports, and move up the value chain.”
Shifting consumption trends in China could nonetheless open new opportunities. Amit Jain noted that Chinese consumers are increasingly purchasing products such as coffee and nuts, compared to two decades ago.
Economist Ken Gichinga said the policy could improve market access for African firms.
“These new measures will improve access to Chinese markets, closing that trade deficit and expand opportunities for African companies to prosper,” he said.
“For Kenya, it will be a big boost to certain subsectors such as avocado. The agriculture sector will benefit the most – macadamia nuts, coffee, tea and leather.”
However, Wangari Kebuchi, an Africa fiscal policy economist, cautioned that the gains would be limited without structural reforms.
She said short-term support for foreign exchange earnings and “a modest boost to agriculture, mining and logistics sectors” were welcome, but warned that medium- and long-term fiscal gains would not materialise from market access alone.
“The structural problem has not changed. Africa continues to export raw materials and import manufactured goods. That asymmetry drives persistent trade deficits, constrains domestic revenue mobilisation, and limits the jobs and tax base that governments need to fund public services.
“Zero tariffs on commodities that have already left our shores unprocessed do not solve that problem. They can entrench it. African governments must now ask the harder questions. How do we use improved market access as leverage for industrial policy?”
The exclusion of Eswatini has also drawn scrutiny, with analysts describing it as largely political with minimal economic consequences.
Jain said the move “may even help Eswatini win even more economic concessions from Taiwan”.
Eswatini is one of just 12 countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province that will eventually be “reunited” with the mainland. However, many in Taiwan view the island as an already sovereign state.
Geopolitical tensions were highlighted last month when Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a planned trip to Eswatini after Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar barred his aircraft from their airspace—actions Taipei said were taken under “intense pressure” and economic coercion from China.
According to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australian National University’s Taiwan Centre, China’s decision reflects a broader strategic message.
“China is weaponising its ties with African countries, and showing how relations with China comes up with strings attached,” he said.
“China wants to show the world how it treats its friends, versus Taiwan’s friends.”
Boluwatife Enome
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