Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Prof. Femi Otubanjo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu will win the majority of states whose governors are supporting his re-election bid in the 2027 presidential election.
Otubanjo, who made the prediction in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, said governors remain a strategic asset in election mobilisation because of their control over state and local government resources.
“I expect that most of them will. Those who are claiming to support him, I expect that. But I will tell you, the South-East is a different area.
“There is a desperate aspiration to produce a president. So, they are not going to play around with… The governors are not going to leave them by the nose. So, exclude the South-East from that.
“I’m beginning to see Bayelsa and Rivers. May be inclined to what will be because of the mismanagement of Rivers’ politics.
“I cannot guarantee what the North-Western governors will do.
“And of course, Makinde and Bauchi and others are obviously not going to support Tinubu. But you are going to find that the majority of governors will work for him. And that he will have victory.
“I’m ready to stick my neck out on that as an analyst. And that’s what we do. Try to see whether we can read patterns and scenarios from what we see.
“So, it doesn’t matter whether I’m attacked or abused. Everybody has a right to an opinion. Let them say or do their analysis. If it’s better than mine, fine.”
Earlier, Otubanjo cautioned against generalising the influence of governors, saying their importance to electoral victory varies from state to state.
“One of the things I first learnt in elementary logic is seldom affirm, never generalise, only distinguish a governor’s importance to electoral victory or not. We have to decipher governors.
“There are governors in this coming election that may not be important. And I’m thinking of the governors of the South-East, for example. I’m thinking of the governor of Rivers. I’m thinking of the governor of Oyo State.
“They may not be able to hold their state for the purpose of supporting the party to which they belong. The South-East is bent on producing the next president and therefore they may not necessarily follow the governors who are basically all supporting Tinubu right now, including Soludo, who is a member of APGA.
“Fubara is being pushed aside. I’m sure that… I dare say that Wike has misled Tinubu and they will pay for it.
“I’m willing to make that prediction. In spite of Wike’s bravado about delivering Rivers, Rivers State is made up of rational, intelligent people who are able to make choices.
“You cannot replace an equal man with a… to put and displace an injured person and expect that the injured will be dancing in the street to support you. That is a mistake.
“Now, in Oyo, Makinde is running a very funny campaign. I don’t know what is his purpose. But of course he’s not going to deliver Oyo State himself. I’m very sure of that.”
The professor said the influence of governors should also be assessed individually, noting that some have stronger support among their people than others.
“If you look at the other governors who are in Tinubu, you also have to separate the youth from the staff. There are certain governors that their people are with them. And there are certain governors that you cannot predict whether they will be able to deliver their people.
“But what you want to know is that in 2023, Tinubu did not have all these governors behind him. So if somebody is using the example of Jonathan, you also must use the counter-example of Tinubu who did not have a lot of governors and still was able to gather the majority of the plurality of votes.
“Now, today Tinubu has 31 governors behind him. And some other governors like Osun and Anambra are saying they are giving their votes to him.
“If you look at the results of the last election, Tinubu was first or second in almost 28 states. Now, if you follow that pattern, this time he has 31 governors. That was when he did not have all these governors.
“For example, he did poorly in Delta. He did poorly in Bayelsa. But Delta and Bayelsa have gone to APC.
“So basically, governors have resources. This is an objective thing. They have the resources of the state. And given the legality that is going on now, they also have the resources of the local government.
“They control the chairman of the local government. The chairman of the local government has resources to deal with wards and so on. So in terms of election mobilisation, governors are a strategic asset.
“And nobody should reach them. It’s wishful thinking for Kwankwaso. Kwankwaso’s electoral victory had to do with governorship in Kano. They only say that he has won so far. And it’s sour grapes to be saying governors will not make a difference.
“They have the opportunities to contact people on a regular basis. You go and campaign as a presidential candidate and go back home if you are not a governor. The governor is present in the state.
“He has representation in the local government chairman. He has representation in all kinds of ways.”
On the North, Otubanjo rejected the idea that the region should be treated as a single voting bloc, arguing that electoral choices differ across states.
“It’s always a mistake to talk about the North. You assume that the North is just one homogenous ethnic group.
“In the last election, Tinubu won in Benue, won in Kwara, won in Kogi State, came second in Nasarawa, Plateau. And so, all the governors of Plateau and all the governors of the North-Central are now with Tinubu.
“And the issues are not going to be about security and all that. They are going to be looking at the candidates.”
Responding to the argument that opposition candidates could use insecurity, food inflation and the cost-of-living challenges to weaken the APC’s hold in the North, Otubanjo said the ability to communicate a political message would remain important.
“Well, the opposition’s situation is that you must be able to communicate your message. What the governors have, is that they have the ability to communicate the message.
“All these ones who are talking about security, security, first and foremost, somebody has to communicate it. But if you can also communicate a counter-narrative, that would dismiss all those things.”
On the influence of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and the possible effect of his imprisonment on the 2027 election, Otubanjo said he expected Tinubu to win Kaduna State, although he acknowledged that the issue could affect some votes.
“Yes, but with Uba Sani, I think that Kaduna is likely to go to Tinubu. That’s a more effective supporter than El-Rufai, who was almost ambivalent in his support for Tinubu. But let us not, I don’t want to raise too much optimism.
“I think that Tinubu will win Kaduna. I think he will win in North-Central, largely.”
Asked whether El-Rufai’s imprisonment would play a role, he said: “Well, I don’t think so. It will play a role. It will take away some votes, but how significant role will it play? That is the question you should be asking.
“Everything will play a role. Issues will play a role, but at the end of the day, people are going to be rerouted into voting in one way or the other.”
Defending his assessment of Uba Sani against El-Rufai’s previous role as governor, Otubanjo said El-Rufai’s support for Tinubu did not translate into victory for the president in Kaduna in 2023.
“El-Rufai had his own, El-Rufai was useful in the 2023 election, but Tinubu still lost Kaduna State with El-Rufai as the sitting governor.
“So in spite of all that he did, he couldn’t deliver Kaduna State for Tinubu, and that is the issue we are discussing. We are not discussing El-Rufai’s importance.
“El-Rufai may be an important, he must have done great things. You know, in politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests.
“So what Rufai did was good at the time, but he has done other things that has gotten him in trouble.
“So he was an effective party manager, but at the same time he did not mobilise enough to win, to make Tinubu win Kaduna State.
“So what I’m saying is that Uba Sani may be more committed. He seems to be a more straightforward person to me in terms of his loyalty and his likely to raise issues.
“I’m not saying that Tinubu will win in Kaduna, but if you look at the margin, the margin of victory of Atiku at that time, he was not too strong.
“So I see Tinubu under Uba Sani winning Kaduna. I see him winning most of the states of the North-Central, except Nasarawa.
“I even see him winning Kaduna, Jigawa, Zamfara again. I’m making three. No, two you are repeating.
“You will score 50 per cent in every second place in half of the politics and it will add the whole add up. If you look at the 2023 elections,his victory was based on the fact that he consistently scored second in about 16 states.”
Otubanjo also described the 2027 election as a matter of political speculation rather than something that could be predicted scientifically.
“It’s quite possible. That is political speculation. It’s quite possible. I’m speculating as well. You are speculating. I’m not.
“I don’t. Elections are not scientific. They are not medical things that you can predict the trajectory of.
“It is something that you speculate about. You are looking at what happened before. You are looking at the present circumstances.
“And looking at what is Atiku selling to Nigerians. What does he sell to Nigerians? The credibility? Or what? The performance? The ethics? The morality? Nothing! This is a blank campaign.
“What is Obi selling beyond the fact that he represents the aspiration of the South-East for governorship? That is all.
“When you listen to him, he’s blank. Unfortunately, he does not have the power of oratory. So he speaks in a very unfortunate way that does not communicate immediately.”
Comparing the candidates, Otubanjo said Tinubu’s political record gave him an advantage, while arguing that Peter Obi was mainly representing the aspiration of the South-East.
“Tinubu has the power of oratory. You asked me to come and express my opinion. I came to express my opinion.
“Tinubu has a record by which you can go. Since 1978, Tinubu has been a force in Nigerian politics. He has created political parties. He has helped the president to win. He has become a president. He has introduced policies that are improving the economy.
“So the question I’m asking… He has a record.
“Tinubu doesn’t have the power of oratory. But he has other powers. When I was talking about Atiku, did I talk about oratory? No, I didn’t. I’m talking of some weaknesses here and there.
“Tinubu may not have the power of oratory. He may not even have the power of recollection. But he has a record. Atiku has no record.
“Obi’s aspiration is very strong. Yes, very good. He’s representing the South-East.
“But that’s all. He’s not presenting a case that would make Nigeria better. That’s what we need. And that’s what the people want to hear.”
Otubanjo concluded by reiterating his prediction that the majority of governors supporting Tinubu would work for his victory, while identifying the South-East and some other states as exceptions.
“I expect that most of them will. Those who are claiming to support him, I expect that.
“But I will tell you, the South-East is a different area. There is a desperate aspiration to produce a president. So, they are not going to play around with… The governors are not going to leave them by the nose.
“So, exclude the South-East from that.
“I’m beginning to see Bayelsa and Rivers. May be inclined to what will be because of the mismanagement of Rivers’ politics.
“I cannot guarantee what the North-Western governors will do. But I am confident…
“And of course, Makinde and Bauchi and others are obviously not going to support Tinubu.
“But you are going to find that the majority of governors will work for him. And that he will have victory.
“I’m ready to stick my neck out on that as an analyst. And that’s what we do. Try to see whether we can read patterns and scenarios from what we see.
“So, it doesn’t matter whether I’m attacked or abused. Everybody has a right to an opinion. Let them say or do their analysis.
“If it’s better than mine, fine.”
Boluwatife Enome
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