Director of Research, Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Professor Femi Otubanjo has warned that the ongoing political crisis in Rivers State involving Governor Siminalayi Fubara could weaken President Bola Tinubu’s support base in the South-South ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Otubanjo described the handling of Governor Fubara within the state’s political structure as highly damaging and politically unusual.
“The treatment of Fubara must be one of the American wonders of Nigerian politics. Fubara has been badly treated.”
He argued that the current power dynamics in Rivers State suggest that influential political actors are operating independently of the president’s broader political interests. “What has emerged today in Rivers is that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, not Tinubu’s agenda, in spite of the pretence of P-BAT and all that combination.”If Wike really wants to pursue Tinubu’s agenda, he must retain Fubara or struggle to get another injured man as the candidate.”
“To remove Fubara, an injured man, for the first time being governor of that state, and put an upland person is to be creating problems for Tinubu.”
Otubanjo further claimed that control over the political selection process in the state has shifted away from formal party structures. “We have a situation in which Wike, who is not even in the APC, has taken control of the primary situation in the APC, the reality, of course, is that what they have done is very dangerous for Tinubu.”
He warned that the removal or weakening of Fubara from the state’s political equation could have direct consequences for electoral outcomes in Rivers. “By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the people of Rivers State you are undermining your ability to win Rivers State.”
“You are not only alienating people in Rivers State, you are alienating the South-South across Nigeria the beneficiaries of that game will be Wike, It’s a dangerous game to play, they are not likely to vote.”
According to Otubanjo the implications extend beyond Rivers State, potentially affecting the ruling party’s support across the South-South geopolitical zone. “So really, by removing Fubara, you are shooting yourself in the leg but it is not Wike’s leg that has been shot, it is Tinubu’s leg.”
He stressed that while political operators may influence selection processes. “Wike does not own Rivers State. Wike owns the machinery of selection but it does not own the people.”
Otubanjo noted that Tinubu’s political advantage in the South-South had previously been strengthened by alignment with key state actors. “Tinubu had, going for him, the whole of the South-South all of them had gone APC now you are trying to undermine that advantage which you have laboured to gain.”
He concluded that despite apparent control of political structures, electoral outcomes remain uncertain and volatile.“A week is a long time in politics the odds favour Tinubu but as Harold Wilson tells us, a week is a long time in politics.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
Follow us on:
