UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has projected that the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) market is set to hit $4.8 trillion by 2033, expressing apprehension that up to 40 per cent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI-driven automation.
The projection is roughly the size of Germany’s economy, indicating a 25-fold increase in just 10 years.
UNCTAD said AI-driven automation threatened to erode the low-cost labouradvantage many developing economies relied on for growth and poverty reduction.
UNCTAD is a permanent intergovernmental body set up by the United Nations General Assembly in 1964, and it supports developing countries to access the benefits of a globalised economy more fairly and effectively.
The projects were contained in a new report, titled, “Ensuring AI Benefits Everyone Is Key to Development in the Global South,” which identified the capabilities and international arrangements needed to prevent AI from widening existing development gaps.
In July 2026, Nigeria emerged as the leading African country in the second edition of the Global Index on Responsible AI (GIRAI), ranking 38th globally and number one in Africa with an overall index score of 45.93.
UNCTAD stated that while the global AI market was projected to hit $4.8 trillion by 2033, about 65 per cent of people in least developed countries currently remained offline, putting the technology out of reach from the start.
It stated that up to 40 per cent of jobs worldwide could be affected by AI-driven automation, which threatened to erode the low-cost labour advantage many developing economies relied on for growth and poverty reduction.
According to the organisation, 118 countries – mostly in the global south – are absent from major AI governance platforms, meaning that norms on safety, transparency and accountability are being written without them.
“These are not just technical gaps. They’re human development gaps affecting livelihoods, public services and countries’ capacities to meet their citizens’ needs,” it said.
However, it stressed that the technology’s rapid expansion was already affecting everyday life, adding that AI-powered mobile apps help rural health workers interpret symptoms where doctors were scarce, while adaptive learning platforms personalised lessons for students in under-resourced schools.
UNCTAD stated, “In climate-vulnerable regions, AI models forecast floods, droughts and crop failures days or weeks in advance, giving communities time to prepare.
“But these gains aren’t automatic. They depend on choices about who builds the technology, whose data trains it, and who gets a say in how it is governed.”
UNCTAD pointed out that the stakes were high for human development as the benefits of AI were far from evenly distributed. It stressed that a small group of economies and around 100 firms controlled the bulk of AI research, patents, and computing power.
The report said fewer than one-third of Developing Countries had a national AI strategy, explaining that among least developed countries, the figure is just 12 per cent.
UNCTAD underscored the point that AI could deliver the greatest human development impact where needs were most acute: agriculture, primary healthcare, disaster management, and public administration.
But it stated that success depended on three interdependent factors: infrastructure, such as electricity, broadband and computing; locally relevant data; and workforce skills.
For most Developing Countries, UNCTAD stated that the realistic entry point was adapting existing or open-source models to local conditions rather than building proprietary systems.
Aligning the efforts with national development plans — and treating data governance as central to readiness — separates countries that capture AI’s gains from those where the technology remains confined to urban centres.
UNCTAD advocated global cooperation to steer AI towards shared goals and values.
It prescribed a public disclosure mechanism for AI, similar to the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) framework, adding that this can improve accountability and turn global commitments into impactful outcomes.
It added that a global shared facility could provide equitable access to AI infrastructure, lowering entry barriers for countries that cannot build such infrastructure alone.
It equally recommended open data and open-source models to broaden access to knowledge and resources, supporting inclusive AI innovation, adding that coordinating fragmented open-source AI resources can make them more accessible and promote global collaboration.
UNCTAD observed that sharing AI knowledge and resources – especially through South–South cooperation – could strengthen the capacity of Developing Countries to seize AI benefits and address common challenges.
Ndubuisi Francis
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