US President Donald Trump is taking a less confrontational approach towards China ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, with experts pointing to Beijing’s dominance of critical minerals as a major factor.
Unlike previous summits, the Trump administration has so far avoided threatening steep tariffs on Chinese imports or banning US technology exports to China.
Experts say China’s near-total control of rare earth minerals, which are essential to technology and automobile manufacturing, has constrained Washington’s ability to apply pressure on Beijing.
China curbed rare earth exports last year in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs, sending shockwaves through global markets and highlighting Beijing’s influence over a crucial part of global supply chains.
“The US and the Trump administration are just fundamentally in a different position with China where they can’t use that overly coercive, over-reaching approach, knowing that they are going to walk some stuff back, because of everything that happened last summer and because of the rare-earth export controls,” said Emily Kilcrease, a former trade official now at the Center for a New American Security.
China accounts for up to 70% of global rare-earth mining, 85% of refining capacity and about 90% of rare-earth metal alloy and magnet production, according to consultancy AlixPartners.
Minerals including yttrium and dysprosium are critical to industries such as automobile manufacturing, semiconductors and defence, making rare earths a significant vulnerability in global supply chains.
Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet at the White House on Thursday, September 24, followed by a state dinner attended by senior officials and chief executives.
Washington has taken several recent measures against Chinese companies, but experts say they have been less aggressive than previous threats and were announced months ahead of the summit, potentially reducing the risk of retaliation from Beijing.
In June, the Pentagon accused Alibaba, BYD and other Chinese companies of supporting the Chinese military. In July, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened sanctions against Chinese AI companies accused of copying US AI models.
The United States also banned imports from 43 Chinese companies over alleged human rights abuses and imposed restrictions on imports of new foreign robots and power inverters, measures that targeted China.
“They’re keeping the boil low enough that China won’t take really severe retaliatory action,” said Peter Harrell, a former White House official under President Joe Biden.
After the “rare earths blowup,” Harrell said the Trump administration “feels vulnerable to Chinese coercion” and is seeking “stability and secure access to critical minerals.”
The United States and China have been engaged in a prolonged trade and technology dispute since Trump’s first term, with tensions often escalating before high-level meetings before easing afterwards.
At their 2019 meeting in Osaka, Japan, Trump withdrew threats to impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods and eased export restrictions on Huawei after China agreed to make an unspecified number of purchases of US agricultural products.
At their October 2025 meeting in Busan, Trump reduced tariffs by 10% and suspended export controls on thousands of Chinese companies after Xi agreed to halt expanded rare-earth controls and resume purchases of US soybeans.
Trump again adopted a tougher position ahead of his meeting with Xi in Beijing in May, threatening a new 50% tariff on China after reports that Beijing planned to provide new air defence systems to Iran.
However, Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of CrowdStrike and Silverado Policy Accelerator, said Washington was likely to remain cautious until it develops alternative sources of critical minerals.
“Since Busan last year there is an uneasy truce that I think will be maintained,” he said at an event on US-China competition last week.
The latest talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng have also included discussions on rare earths, critical minerals, tariffs and artificial intelligence ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.
The meetings come as Washington seeks improved flows of Chinese-produced rare-earth magnets and critical minerals, which US officials say have not been supplied at the level agreed under the existing trade truce.
The talks highlight the importance of rare earths in the broader US-China relationship, as Washington seeks to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies while maintaining access to minerals crucial to advanced manufacturing and technology.
Ojo Triumph
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