As the countdown to Saturday’s election draws to a close, the contest for the governorship has effectively become a two-horse race between the incumbent, Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, although other candidates are also in the race.
This is as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has called on the Independent National Electoral Commission and security agencies to ensure a peaceful and transparent election as well as ensure that the will of the people prevail on the polls.
The Nigeria Police Force has announced a 42-hour restriction of movement from 12:00 midnight on Friday, until 6:00 p.m. Saturday, as part of comprehensive measures to ensure the peaceful, secure and orderly conduct of the election.
Osun has 2,339,233 registered voters, out of which 1,906,3,90, who collected the Permanent Voters Card (PVC) are eligible to vote. Figures revealed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), show that Osogbo has the largest electorate in the state, with 167,704 registered voters, representing 7.17 per cent of the total register. It is followed by Ife East with 128,515 voters, or 5.50 per cent, while Olorunda has 123,063, representing 5.26 per cent. Ife Central has another 122,454 voters, or 5.24 per cent. Iwo has 106,813 registered voters, representing 4.57 per cent of the state’s electorate. Irewole has 96,528, which is 4.13 per cent, while Ifelodun has 94,870, which is 4.06 per cent, among others.
The figures further showed that nearly half of Osun’s registered voters are concentrated in just 10 of the state’s 30 LGAs.
INEC National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Haruna in a statement said the 1,906,390 PVCs collected represented 81.50 per cent.
He added that the remaining 426,842 PVCs, representing 18.50 per cent, have been safely deposited with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in line with the Commission’s established practice.
The Commission reassured political parties, civil society organisations, media, and the good people of Osun State of its total readiness to conduct a free, fair, credible, transparent, and inclusive election.
Tinubu to INEC, Security Agencies: Ensure Peaceful, Transparent Poll
The President, in a statement issued on Friday by his Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, also charged the electorate in Osun State to come out to discharge their civic responsibility and eschew any act that could disrupt the peaceful conduct of the election, while assuring the people of their safety before and after the polls.
“As the people of Osun State head to the polling units to elect who will govern them in the next four years, I call on the Independent National Electoral Commission to ensure orderly conduct of the election.
“The election must be transparent, free and fair. I urge INEC to ensure the integrity of the process,” Tinubu said.
“INEC must use this last off-cycle election as a test case to demonstrate to Nigerians their full preparedness for the 2027 polls,” he added.
“I have charged the Inspector-General of Police and other heads of security outfits taking part in the election to provide maximum security at polling units. No room should be allowed for troublemakers to disrupt the process.
“Electoral officials and voters must be protected so they can perform their civic duties without fear or intimidation.
“Voters should feel confident to go out in their numbers to vote for the candidate of their choice as all measures necessary to ensure a peaceful, free and fair election have been put in place.
“Our elections must be credible, and the outcome of the Osun Governorship election must reflect the will of the people,” the President declared.
The Candidates
Out Of the 15 political parties and their candidates listed by INEC for Saturday’s governorship polls, the most visible candidates have presented their manifestoes, gone beyond consultation and rounded up campaigns across the 30 local government areas including Modakeke area office.
The list of those in the race include Governor Adeleke of (Accord Party), Salaam – ADC; Oyebamiji – APC, Farinloye Olarenwaju (Action Alliance), Esan Olajide (African Action Congress, AAC); Adeagbo Opawoye (African Democratic Party, ADP), Mustapha Adeniyi, Social Democratic Party, (SDP).
Others include Adesina Aseyemi-Doro (All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA); Adewale Adebayo (Allied People Movement, APM); Clement Adesuyi (Action Peoples Party, APP); Masilo Adeleke (Boot Party); Taofeek Adeleke (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP); Saliu Oyelami (Peoples Redemption Party, PRP), Ogunsakin Olalekan (Young Progressives Party, YPP) and Adefemi Adesuyi (Zenith Labour Party, ZLP).
Meanwhile, the three leading candidates – Accord, APC and ADC – presented their manifestoes at a recent Town Hall Meeting organised by ARISE NEWS Channel.
While Governor Adeleke hinged his re-election campaign on his five-point agenda reloaded, his rival, Oyebamiji of the APC, tagged his manifesto as ‘Prosperity agenda’.
Adeleke’s Strengths
Apart from being the incumbent governor, he also enjoyed acceptability among the state civil servants and the leadership of the labour unions. The NLC, TUC and JNC are all on his side and appearing in the Accord party campaign soliciting support for the governor.
Adeleke is equally banking on his achievements in the area of infrastructure across the three senatorial districts, which has been driving his campaigns so far.
It is also a major point for his party members and supporters. In addition, the Ede-born politician seems to be enjoying the backing of some traditional rulers in the state, led by the Ataoja of Osogbo, who on different occasions publicly declared support for the Governor and Accord party despite resistance from his subjects.
Also, Adeleke’s popularity has extended to the party, with the Accord party becoming more popular than the PDP through which he won the governorship poll about four years ago.
The PDP’s failure to field a candidate for the 2026 polls in the state is more of an advantage for the Governor’s re-election bid as the party’s structure, apart from a few strong men, still works for the Accord.
Also, Senator Iyiola Omisore’s loyalists’ defection is another major advantage the governor has in the defection of Senator Iyiola Omisore’s loyalists to the Accord Party due to the fallout of the APC primaries.
However, Omisore still remains in the APC, as many of his associates who served in the Gboyega Oyetola administration, including three commissioners and special advisers, left the party and joined the Accord.
Also, political stakeholders believe that Governor Adeleke has an advantage in the Osun-West Senatorial District, where he won massively in 2022.
But the APC candidate is also from the district, which may lead to a division of votes cast during the polls.
Ede federal constituency, which the Governor hails from, consisting of Ede-North, Ede-South, Egbedore and Ejigbo local governments, has a total of 319,489 registered voters. This is a major advantage for the governor who still retains hold on the senatorial district. Besides, with the help of Stakeholders Adeleke may swing votes in Ijesaland.
Also, in Osun Central, the Governor Ademola Adeleke enjoy the support of the Ataoja of Osogbo, the Secretary to the State Government, Teslim Igbalaye, Mr Gani Ola-Oluwa and the House of Representatives member, Mr. Morufu Adewale who are likely to help the Governor’s cause in Osogbo and Olorunda local government.
Adeleke’s Weaknesses
The governor’s major challenge began from his policy decisions early in his administration. The opposition cites the sacking of teachers, executive orders on traditional Rulers, agencies and health workers without replacements; the sacking of media workers of the State-owned broadcast stations and the administration’s failure to recruit civil servants as a minus for his re-election bid.
The administration is facing serious allegation of nepotism, with outcry over recent employment into the teaching service and the University of Ilesa favouring Ede indigents without other towns benefiting
Also, the governor’s dismal performance in major sectors like agriculture, health, commerce, industry and education form major issues for his opponents’ campaign strategies.
Another factor that may affect the fortunes of the governor is that a major PDP bloc loyal to former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has publicly dumped the governor for the candidate of the APM, Mr Adewale Adebayo.
Bola Oyebamiji’s Strengths
The APC candidate is believed to enjoy the support of President Tinubu and the APC governors, who will stop at nothing to ensure victory for the party at the polls. He also has strong support of a former Governor of the State and Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola.
The APC candidate’s personality and philanthropy has endeared him to the people. Apart from being endorsed by the President and Oyetola, Oyebamiji’s election bid receive a major boost with the defection of all the federal lawmakers from Osun-East senatorial district, who are also major political gladiators from the towns.
They include Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Mr. Wole Oke (Ijesa-North federal constituency), Sanya Omirin (Ijesa-South federal constituency) and Mr. Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife federal constituency). Their defection, according to party leaders, may tilt the pendulum in favour of Oyebamiji from the senatorial district.
Besides, some of Omisore’s points men in Ife have also pledged loyalty to the party and its candidate.
While Adeleke got massive votes from Osun-West in 2022, the candidature of Oyebamiji may change the narrative, with the total registered votes from Ikire federal constituency amounting to 222,786 votes for Irewole, Ayedaade and Isokan local governments, likely reducing the influence of the governor in the district.
While Governor Adeleke seems to enjoy endorsement among royal fathers from Ife, Oyebamiji’s major endorsement programme has been coming from markets and traders. In most of his engagements, the APC candidate has always taken advantage of the allegation of nepotism against the incumbent to sell himself as a man for all.
In Osun-Central, whoever wins in Osogbo and Olorunda local government is likely to win the senatorial district. Oyebamiji has the likes of the party’s national secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru who is from the core Osogbo supported by Executive Director, Marine and Blue Economy, Olalekan Badmus and many elites in the Olorunda and Osogbo, supporting the APC.
Oyebamamiji’s Weaknesses
Oyebamiji’s major issue is the policy decision of the Oyetola administration under whom he served. The modulated salary under Governor Rauf Aregbesola and the inability of Governor Oyetola to pay part of it has been a major issue confronting his candidature. His critics, especially from the Accord party, believe he is responsible for the modulated salary under Aregbesola’s administration and should not be trusted with the governorship seat.
Najeem Salaam’s Prospects
Since unveiling his 10-point agenda, anchored on workers’ welfare and sustainable electricity for the industrialisation of the state, youths empowerment with the creation of 20,000 Jobs, and education Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, has continuously been engaging with the electorate on the need to abandon the traditional political parties.
Salaam’s advantage is Aregbesola’s grassroots appeal when he was governor in the state and the candidate’s humble nature that endears him to a section of supporters across the state, especially from Osun-West Senatorial District where he comes from. Many Stakeholders, who left the APC along with Aregbesola, are with Salaam, which is helping to bolster his governorship ambition.
Salaam’s Weaknesses
Salaam’s major issues is his affiliation with Rauf Aregbesola, who is the National Secretary of the ADC.
Civil servants are yet to forgive the former Governor, who had bitter experiences with the modulated salary and pension issues during Aregbesola’s reign. Observers of political events in the state posit that the ADC does not have the necessary state-wide structure needed to prosecute an election, nor does it possess the needed resources to run a successful governorship project.
Deji Elumoye, Chuks Okocha, Alex Enumah, Michael Olugbede, Adedayo Akinwale, Linus Aleke and Yinka Kokawole
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