Crude oil prices surged above $117 a barrel at the weekend, reaching their highest level since April, as fears of renewed US military strikes on Iran and escalating threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East heightened concerns about global crude supplies.
This comes as oil theft and pipeline losses in Nigeria fell by 82.9 per cent in five years, from 102,900 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 17,600 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, amid fresh concerns about further increases in lost volumes after years of decline.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Navy has uncovered 132,000 litres of stolen crude oil in Allison community, Bonny Local Government Area (LGA) of Rivers State, disrupting a potential storage point in the illicit petroleum supply chain as troops of Operation Delta Sentinel intensified their clampdown on oil theft and economic saboteurs in the Niger Delta region.
Nigeria’s oil benchmark, Brent crude, climbed by about 3.5 per cent to cross $117 a barrel during trading before easing to just above $116, still up approximately 2.7 per cent.
The latest rally followed reports that Washington was considering fresh military strikes against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, raising concerns that the conflict, now in its eighth month, could escalate further rather than move towards a diplomatic resolution.
Iran had threatened to attack oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure across the Gulf if the United States and Israel launched a new offensive against the country.
Brent crude traded at about $72 a barrel in February, before the war began, but surged to about $126 a barrel by the end of April as the conflict intensified and concerns mounted over supply security.
Tensions rose again during the week following claims by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that it struck four commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
The US ordered some diplomats and family members of American government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, which had faced continued attacks by Houthi rebels operating from Yemen.
Oil Theft Slumps 82.9% to 17,600bpd in Five Years Amid Fresh Uptick in Losses
Meanwhile, official operational statistics published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that daily crude oil losses, which fell to a five-year low of 9,100 bpd in 2025, rose by 93.4 per cent to 17,600 bpd between January and July 2026.
The figures in the commission’s fifth anniversary publication, ‘The Upstream Gaze’, highlighted both progress in curbing crude theft and the ongoing challenge of protecting oil production and transportation infrastructure.
According to the data, daily losses declined from 102,900 bpd in 2021 to 55,000 bpd in 2022, representing a 46.5 per cent reduction. The downward trend continued in 2023 when losses dropped to 22,900 bpd, before falling further to 11,200 bpd in 2024 and 9,100 bpd in 2025.
The federal government attributed the cut in crude losses to the combined efforts of the military, local pipeline surveillance groups in the Niger Delta, and the introduction of modern crude measuring devices in the region.
The figures showed that Nigeria’s total liquid hydrocarbon production, comprising crude oil and condensate, gradually recovered from the lows recorded in recent years.
Output averaged 1.63 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, compared with 1.62 million bpd in 2025, 1.56 million bpd in 2024, 1.47 million bpd in 2023 and 1.38 million bpd in 2022. Production stood at 1.62 million bpd in 2021, the NUPRC data highlighted.
Crude oil production alone averaged 1.46 million bpd in the period under review, up from 1.43 million bpd in 2025, 1.35 million bpd in 2024, 1.24 million bpd in 2023 and 1.14 million bpd in 2022. The figure for 2021 was 1.31 million bpd.
In contrast, blended condensate production continued its downward trend, averaging 170,000 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, compared with 190,000 bpd in 2025, 210,000 bpd in 2024, 230,000 bpd in 2023, 240,000 bpd in 2022, and 310,000 bpd in 2021.
The gradual improvement in crude production also coincided with a significant shift in how the country allocates its oil, particularly the growing share supplied to domestic refineries as Nigeria expands its local refining capacity.
Supply to domestic refineries climbed to 460,000 bpd in the first seven months of 2026, up from 280,000 bpd in 2025, 220,000 bpd in 2024, 20,000 bpd in 2023, and just 10,000 bpd in 2022. Domestic refinery supply was virtually non-existent in 2021.
At 460,000 bpd, local refineries accounted for approximately 29 per cent of the 1.61 million bpd in total crude oil lifted during the period. The allocation represented a 64.3 per cent increase over the 280,000 bpd supplied to domestic refineries in 2025, underscoring growing demand for locally processed crude.
Similarly, the shift coincided with a decline in crude available for export, as the government struggled to meet local supply. Average daily crude exports fell to 1.15 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, from 1.33 million bpd in 2025; 1.31 million bpd in 2024; 1.47 million bpd in 2023; 1.32 million bpd in 2022 and 1.51 million bpd in 2021.
The latest export figures were down 13.5 per cent from the 2025 level and 23.8 per cent from the 2021 volume.
In the same vein, total crude lifting averaged 1.61 million bpd in the first seven months of 2026, marginally below the 1.62 million bpd recorded in 2025. The figures suggested that the growing allocation to domestic refineries has been accompanied by a reduction in export volumes, rather than a comparable increase in total crude lifted.
Navy Uncovers 132,000 litres of Stolen Crude Oil in Bonny
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Navy has uncovered 132,000 litres of stolen crude oil in Allison community, Bonny LGA of Rivers State.
According to a statement by the Director of Naval Information, Navy Captain Abiodun Folorunsho, the Forward Operating Base Bonny discovered the stolen crude oil under Operation Delta Sentinel, following actionable intelligence.
He said the operation uncovered 10 dugout pits, adding that the site and the recovered products were handled in accordance with extant regulations.
“The operation reinforces the importance of intelligence-led action in identifying concealed petroleum stockpiles and disrupting the infrastructure that enables crude oil theft and the unauthorised movement of petroleum products.
“The Nigerian Navy will sustain efforts to locate and dismantle illegal refining infrastructure and disrupt the networks facilitating crude oil theft across the Niger Delta,” the statement said.
The Navy urged community leaders, residents, traditional institutions and other stakeholders to promptly report crude oil theft, illegal refining, suspicious petroleum storage and the unauthorised movement of petroleum products to the nearest security agency.
Timely, credible information, the statement said, could enable swift intervention and prevent illicit activities from expanding.
“Safeguarding the nation’s critical petroleum assets requires vigilance and active cooperation between security agencies and the communities they serve. The Navy therefore urges the public to remain alert and support lawful efforts to protect national resources,” Folorunsho concluded.
Emmanuel Addeh and Linus Aleke
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