US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is becoming increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s directive for the military to be ready by 2027 to seize the island by force if necessary, according to people familiar with US thinking.
The assessment is based partly on delays in China’s military readiness linked to Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s interest in the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, according to two current US officials, a former US official and another person familiar with the matter.
The sources said China could increasingly consider using force from 2028 if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins a fourth consecutive presidential term, particularly if current President Lai Ching-te is re-elected.
“If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” one US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Lai and the DPP support Taiwan’s separate identity from China, a position that Beijing strongly opposes. China considers Taiwan part of its territory, while Taiwan rejects Beijing’s claims and maintains that its people should determine the island’s future.
The assessment represents a significant shift from the long-standing understanding among US officials that Xi wanted China’s People’s Liberation Army to be capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027, the centenary of the PLA’s founding.
The 2027 benchmark has generally been viewed by analysts as a target for military preparedness rather than a fixed invasion date. China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control but has not publicly confirmed an order to invade by 2027.
The Pentagon declined to comment, while China’s US embassy and Taiwan’s representative office in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Xi referred to Taiwan in a speech this week, calling for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations toward “reunification.”
The US intelligence community has also previously indicated that Beijing remains cautious about military action. In its annual threat assessment released in March, US intelligence said China did not have a plan at that time to invade Taiwan in 2027 and continued to prefer bringing the island under its control without force if possible.
The 2028 US presidential election could also factor into Beijing’s calculations, although US officials differed on its significance.
Three people familiar with the matter said China may assess the outcome of the US election, particularly amid what they described as growing American voter opposition to military involvement abroad.
However, one US official said Beijing viewed both major US political parties as broadly aligned on Taiwan.
“It doesn’t become as decisive a factor in my opinion, as it might have been 15 years ago,” the official said.
US President Donald Trump has previously played down the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan during his presidency, saying Xi had told him China would not invade while Trump was in office.
China regards Taiwan as a core issue of its sovereignty and territorial integrity and has repeatedly demanded an end to US arms sales to the island.
The US remains Taiwan’s most important international backer and weapons supplier despite having no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. Washington’s longstanding strategy has focused on strengthening Taiwan’s military capabilities to withstand a potential Chinese attack while allowing time for the US and other partners to respond.
Although Xi has not abandoned the goal of ensuring the PLA has the capabilities required to seize Taiwan by force, US officials said China’s military progress had been affected by the country’s extensive anti-corruption campaign.
The campaign, which Xi launched after coming to power in 2012, has resulted in investigations and purges across China’s political, government and military establishments.
The PLA has been a major target in recent years, with investigations and expulsions reducing the membership of China’s Central Military Commission.
A US official said Chinese military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than those of previous years, although activity increased this year.
The official also said China appeared to have drawn lessons from the wars in Iran and Ukraine about the need to move quickly at the start of a conflict and avoid becoming trapped in a prolonged war.
“There are way too many pieces that aren’t quite in place yet for what would be the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” the official said.
Boluwatife Enome
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