Yiaga Africa says the official results of the 2026 Osun governorship election are consistent with its independent estimates, but widespread reports of vote buying raise concerns about the integrity of voter choice.
The civil society organisation made the assessment in its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) statement on the election released on Sunday.
Yiaga Africa said its analysis was based on reports from 289 of 300 sampled polling units, representing 96% of its sample across the state. It said the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fell within the ranges projected by its observers.
According to the statement, INEC recorded 51.9% for the Accord Party, 1.7% for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and 45.2% for the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Yiaga Africa’s estimates put Accord at 52.1%, with a range of 50.3% to 54.0%; ADC at 1.7%, with a range of 1.4% to 2.1%; and APC at 44.9%, with a range of 43.0% to 46.8%.
“All three parties’ official results fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges,” the organisation said.
It added: “This indicates that the official results, as announced, reflect the ballots counted at polling units.”
However, Yiaga Africa drew a distinction between the accuracy of the results tabulation and the quality of voter choice, citing widespread reports of vote buying and voter inducement.
“However, widespread reports of vote buying and voter inducement raise serious concerns about the integrity of voter choice,” it said.
The organisation said the consistency between its estimates and INEC’s figures indicated that the results were not significantly altered during the collation process.
“Had the results been significantly altered at the ward, LGA, or state collation centers, the official figures would have fallen outside Yiaga Africa’s WTV estimated ranges,” it said.
“The consistency of the results therefore speaks specifically to the accuracy of the tabulation of polling-unit results.”
Yiaga Africa also said voter turnout stood at 43%, which fell within its estimated range of 42.5% to 44.8%.
It commended voters for turning out despite what it described as a difficult pre-election environment, noting that citizens remained at polling units to observe sorting, counting and the announcement of results.
“That vigilance is the most effective deterrent to result manipulation,” the organisation said.
“It does not, however, relieve INEC and the security agencies of their duty to protect the vote; citizens should not have to stand guard over an institution’s integrity.”
On the use of technology, Yiaga Africa said the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) functioned properly in 80% of polling units, while malfunctions were recorded in 20% but subsequently fixed.
It also reported that electronic transmission through the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) strengthened transparency, although uploads stalled between 8:48pm and 10pm, leaving 471 polling-unit results outstanding before transmission resumed at about 11:50pm.
The organisation said INEC must provide a clear explanation for the interruption.
Yiaga Africa further said security personnel largely demonstrated restraint during the election, but called for stronger enforcement against vote buying, intimidation and electoral violence ahead of the 2027 general election.
It said the Osun election showed that “INEC can meet a high operational standard, apply the Electoral Act 2026 and transmit results transparently when the election is well resourced and closely watched.”
The organisation said the challenge was now to reproduce that performance across the 36 states and about 176,000 polling units in 2027.
Among its recommendations, Yiaga Africa called on INEC to issue uniform guidelines on downloadable PVCs, conduct a technical audit of BVAS devices and publish the causes of biometric authentication failures recorded during accreditation.
It also called on security agencies, the EFCC and ICPC to extend enforcement beyond polling units to surrounding areas where voter inducement takes place.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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