A US intelligence assessment warns that Iran and its proxy groups could launch retaliatory attacks against the United States following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint Israeli and US strikes.
The February 28 threat assessment, produced by the Office of Intelligence and Analysis at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and reviewed by Reuters, states that Iran and its affiliates “probably” pose a threat of targeted attacks inside the United States, although officials consider a large-scale physical assault unlikely.
Iran on Sunday confirmed reports of Khamenei’s death in a strike carried out on Saturday, initially announced by Israel and US President Donald Trump.
According to the DHS report, Iran and its proxies “probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland,” particularly if confirmation of the Ayatollah’s death fuels calls for retaliation.
“Although a large-scale physical attack is unlikely, Iran and its proxies probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland, and will almost certainly escalate retaliatory actions or calls to action if reports of the Ayatollah’s death are confirmed,” the assessment says.
The report highlights concerns that Tehran-aligned actors may intensify both direct and indirect operations against US interests.
DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the assessment.
In the short term, the intelligence document identifies cyber operations as the most likely form of retaliation.
It warns that Iran-aligned “hacktivists” are expected to carry out low-level cyber attacks against US networks, including website defacements and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. Such actions, while not catastrophic, could disrupt public-facing government and private sector systems and heighten tensions.
Officials assess that these cyber activities would serve as an immediate and visible response while avoiding the risks of a direct large-scale military confrontation.
Beyond the US mainland, the DHS assessment says Iran will probably continue targeting US and allied interests across the Middle East.
It adds that Tehran would “almost certainly” blame senior US government officials for any protests that erupt following Trump’s recent statement calling for regime change in Iran.
The warning underscores fears that Khamenei’s death could galvanise both state-backed and proxy actors across the region, potentially widening an already volatile conflict.
While intelligence officials downplay the likelihood of a major coordinated physical attack on US soil, the assessment makes clear that retaliatory measures particularly cyber operations and targeted actions remain an active and evolving threat in the aftermath of the Iranian leader’s killing.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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