US forces are set to withdraw from their last bases in Iraq by Wednesday, September 30, ending a military presence that followed more than two decades of war.
The departure, agreed in 2024 under then-President Joe Biden and being carried out by President Donald Trump’s administration, is being celebrated by Iran and its allies as a victory.
Iraqi security experts, however, warn that the withdrawal could strengthen Iran-backed armed groups and create opportunities for Islamic State to regroup.
Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specialising in Iran-aligned Shi’ite armed groups, said the coalition’s departure removes a US military presence that had served as a counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.
He said pro-Iranian militia groups could portray the withdrawal as a victory and seek greater influence over Iraq’s security and political decision-making.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the withdrawal as a “historic victory” for Iran-backed resistance groups and a defeat for the United States.
“On September 30, we will celebrate the turning of a black page in Iraq’s history and the failure of the occupation to impose its will on our country,” he told Reuters.
While the eventual departure of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, some security officials and community leaders believe Iraq is not yet prepared to assume full responsibility for security.
Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zobaie said Iraqis aspire to full sovereignty but warned that the withdrawal could create a security vacuum.
US forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein and remained until their withdrawal in 2011. They returned in 2014 to support Iraqi forces in the fight against Islamic State, which was largely defeated by 2017.
Iraq has since maintained close political and military relationships with both Washington and Tehran, at times becoming a battleground for tensions between the two powers.
The US killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike near Baghdad Airport, while Iran-backed groups repeatedly attacked US bases in Iraq, sometimes prompting American retaliation.
Iran has welcomed the withdrawal, with parliamentary National Security Commission deputy chairman Amir Hayat Moqaddam saying lasting security would prevail in Iraq once American forces leave.
Meanwhile, Iraqi and Kurdish security officials warn that Islamic State could exploit the reduction in US intelligence, logistical support and drone capabilities to rebuild its sleeper-cell network.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said Islamic State activity had increased after the planned withdrawal was publicly announced.
Iraqi security forces also said a suspected Islamic State cell was preparing suicide attacks to coincide with the withdrawal, underscoring concerns that the militant group could exploit emerging security gaps.
Boluwatife Enome
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