Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is considering accelerating a significant rise in UK defence spending, potentially committing billions of pounds more than previously planned, the BBC has learned.
Downing Street is exploring proposals to meet an existing target of spending 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) on core defence by the end of the current parliament, which could run until 2029. That would bring forward by several years an ambition originally set for the next parliament.
Sir Keir had pledged last year to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, alongside a longer-term ambition of reaching 3%. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, he signalled a shift in urgency. “To meet the wider threat, it’s clear that we are going to have to spend more, faster,” he told world leaders.
The move comes amid growing concerns about rising defence costs and mounting global security threats, particularly from Russia. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) is reported to need an additional £28bn over the next four years to meet existing commitments. In January, Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton told MPs that current budgets could not deliver everything required at the desired pace.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, raising defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2029–30 would cost an additional £17.3bn annually. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates the figure could be closer to £13–14bn once planned increases are factored in. Last year, the UK spent around £66bn on defence, equivalent to roughly 2.3% of GDP.
No final decision has been taken, and Treasury officials are said to be cautious about the fiscal implications. While some in Whitehall argue that accelerating the target would demonstrate the UK’s commitment to NATO obligations — including a longer-term pledge to reach 3.5% of GDP on core defence by 2035 — others warn of pressure on public finances.
Potential funding options reportedly under discussion include reallocating money from overseas development assistance, net-zero programmes, or major infrastructure projects such as the high speed rail line between London and Birmingham. Borrowing more is another possibility, though Treasury officials are wary of breaching fiscal rules and unsettling financial markets.
Defence sources suggest meeting the 3% target earlier would be welcomed by the United States and reinforce the UK’s leadership within NATO. In Munich, Sir Keir framed increased defence investment as a strategic necessity. “We must build our hard power because that is the currency of our age,” he said. “We must spend more, deliver more, and coordinate more.”
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper echoed that sentiment, describing the government’s plans as the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. She said, “We are going to need to go further, of course we will need to go further, because we are going to need to strengthen our defence and our partnerships in order to be able to do so.”
An MOD spokesperson declined to comment on speculation saying, “We do not comment on speculation. The government is focused on delivering for defence. We are delivering the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, with an extra £5bn for defence this financial year alone.”
The debate now centres on whether the UK can afford to move faster — and how it would pay for doing so — as geopolitical pressures intensify.
Melissa Enoch
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