Turkey’s opposition has vowed to sustain its challenge to President Tayyip Erdogan, expressing confidence that voters will use the next national elections to reject what it considers growing pressure on political opponents.
The opposition made significant gains in the March 2024 local elections, raising hopes that it could eventually challenge Erdogan’s longstanding hold on power. However, more than two years later, the political landscape has changed, with prominent opposition figures facing legal proceedings and divisions emerging within the movement.
The opposition’s leading presidential challenger is currently in prison, while a court ruling has triggered a leadership dispute within its main political party. Several mayors elected on opposition platforms have also abandoned their affiliations and joined Erdogan’s ruling AK Party.
Despite these setbacks, opposition leaders insist that democratic elections remain the best route to political change. They believe voters will respond to what they describe as politically motivated prosecutions and attempts to weaken critics of the government.
Their biggest challenge is maintaining public frustration and transforming it into sustained political support ahead of the next elections. Erdogan has been in power for 23 years, first as prime minister and later as president.
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of the Istanbul-based IstanPol Institute, said public anger remained but warned that it could gradually disappear without effective political mobilisation.
“I do not believe this anger has disappeared,” she said, explaining that unless the frustration was channelled into political or organisational activity, it could develop into disappointment, hopelessness or apathy.
The government, however, rejects allegations that legal proceedings against opposition politicians are politically motivated, maintaining that the judiciary operates independently.
Izmir, a major city on Turkey’s western Aegean coast, offers a clear illustration of the challenges facing the opposition.
The AK Party has never secured an electoral victory in the city, Turkey’s third-largest, with a population of approximately 4.5 million. However, the opposition suffered a symbolic setback this month when Mayor Cemil Tugay, who was elected in 2024 on an opposition ticket, announced that he was joining Erdogan’s party.
The move carries particular significance in Izmir, which has long been regarded as a stronghold of Turkey’s secular and social democratic opposition.
Tugay defended his decision, saying it was in the best interests of the city. Erdogan also dismissed allegations that the mayor had been pressured into switching political allegiance.
Cagatay Guc, head of the New Party in Izmir, expressed confidence that residents would demonstrate their opposition to the defection and what he described as government coercion through their votes in the next national elections.
He argued that the government was mistaken if it believed political pressure could determine the outcome of future elections.
The New Party, led nationally by Ozgur Ozel, organised protests before Tugay’s defection and believes many residents disapprove of the mayor’s decision.
Several Izmir residents interviewed by Reuters also criticised the move.
Koray, a 50years old resident who withheld his full identity over concerns about possible repercussions, said Tugay’s decision did not reflect the wishes of the city’s population. He maintained that the mayor’s defection would not make residents support the ruling party.
Halide, a 67years old woman, also said she had no intention of voting for Erdogan’s party and indicated that she would instead support Ozel.
However, other residents welcomed the possibility of improved cooperation between the city administration and the central government. They argued that having a mayor affiliated with the governing party could make it easier for Izmir to secure assistance and better public services.
Isa, a 46years old resident, said he hoped the change would bring additional government support and improvements to municipal services.
Another resident, Alpay, aged 53, suggested that Tugay might have felt he had little choice but to change political sides to avoid imprisonment. He referred to Silivri prison, west of Istanbul, where several opposition figures are being held.
Among those imprisoned is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, widely regarded as Erdogan’s leading political rival.
Imamoglu won a second term in the 2024 local elections under the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which secured 37.8 per cent of the vote. The party also retained control of Ankara, Izmir and several other major cities.
Those victories strengthened opposition hopes that control of Turkey’s largest urban centres could provide a platform for challenging Erdogan at the national level.
Since then, however, the movement has faced increasing difficulties. Dozens of mayors and hundreds of municipal officials have been jailed alongside Imamoglu, who is awaiting trial over corruption allegations that he denies.
The CHP has also been weakened by an internal leadership dispute following a court ruling that removed Ozel as party leader and reinstated former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
In response, Ozel, a close ally of Imamoglu, established the New Party in an effort to preserve opposition support and sustain public resistance to what the movement describes as government pressure.
Tanju Tosun, a political science professor at Ege University in Izmir, warned that continued political uncertainty could discourage some opposition supporters from participating in the next general election.
He said voters who lose confidence in the possibility of political change may see little reason to cast their ballots, potentially resulting in a slight decline in turnout, particularly among opposition supporters.
Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2028. However, a presidential adviser said this month that the polls could take place slightly earlier than planned.
An early election could give Erdogan an opportunity to overcome constitutional restrictions on seeking another presidential term.
With opposition politicians facing legal challenges and divisions continuing within the movement, the coming months will test its ability to maintain public support and convince voters that democratic elections remain a viable path to political change.
Goodness Anunobi
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