Massive cuts to US foreign humanitarian aid under former President Donald Trump’s administration could result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, with children making up nearly one-third of the toll, according to a new study published in The Lancet medical journal.
The research, led by Davide Rasella of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, warns that the abrupt drop in funding risks erasing two decades of health gains in vulnerable populations. “For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” Rasella said in a statement.
The study analysed data from 133 countries and estimated that US foreign aid, largely channelled through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), had prevented more than 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021. However, recent modelling shows that an 83 percent funding reduction – as announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this year – could reverse this progress.
More than 4.5 million of the projected deaths would be children under the age of five, or around 700,000 annually.
The cuts were part of a broader cost-cutting initiative led by billionaire Elon Musk during Trump’s presidency, aimed at shrinking the federal workforce and refocusing aid programmes. Rubio defended the decision, claiming the roughly 1,000 remaining aid efforts would be “administered more effectively” under the State Department and in collaboration with Congress.
Yet humanitarian organisations and UN officials have reported worsening conditions on the ground. In Kenya, food rations at refugee camps have been slashed to record lows. At Kakuma refugee camp, a BBC report documented malnourished children, including a baby with peeling skin and barely able to move.
The Lancet’s findings were released as global leaders convened in Seville for the United Nations’ largest humanitarian aid summit in a decade. Rasella and his co-authors say the stakes could not be higher. “The consequences of these cuts will be devastating,” he warned.
Follow us on:
