Officials said pre-war intelligence assessments had outlined Iranian retaliation as a possible outcome, though not a certainty. One source noted it was “certainly on the list of potential outcomes”, even if not guaranteed.
The president stated twice on Monday that Iran’s attacks on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were unexpected, first making the claim during a meeting at the White House.
“They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” Trump said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
His remarks came amid broader claims from the administration that have not been substantiated by US intelligence, including assertions about Iran’s missile capabilities and the speed at which it could develop a nuclear weapon.
These concerns, along with claims of an imminent threat to US forces, were among the reasons cited by Trump and senior aides for joining Israel in launching air strikes against Iran on February 28.
Sources also indicated that Trump had been briefed ahead of the operation that Iran might attempt to disrupt shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
In the weeks since, Iranian drones and missiles have struck targets across Gulf states, including US military installations, an Emirati base hosting French troops, and civilian infrastructure such as airports, hotels and energy facilities.
Tehran has also effectively halted most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz a key route for roughly 20% of global oil supplies triggering a sharp rise in energy prices.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers said briefings from the administration did not present evidence of an imminent threat that would have necessitated the joint US-Israeli military action.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
A US official said Trump had been cautioned that military action against Iran could escalate into a wider regional conflict, particularly if Tehran believed Gulf nations were supporting or facilitating the strikes.
However, speaking again later at the White House, Trump reiterated that he had not been warned of such risks.
“Nobody, nobody… the greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit,” he said.
A second source familiar with the intelligence assessments added that US agencies had anticipated Israel’s strategy particularly efforts to target senior Iranian leaders could trigger reprisals against American military and diplomatic sites, as well as allied nations in the region.
Diplomatic staff withdrawals from several US embassies in the region were only ordered after the air strikes had commenced, the source added, despite earlier warnings that Iran could broaden its response.
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