US President Donald Trump is heading to Texas on Wednesday for his third visit to the state in a month, as Republicans confront unexpectedly competitive races in a state they have long considered a stronghold.
Trump is scheduled to campaign in San Antonio alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who is facing Democrat James Talarico in a close contest. A Republican defeat on November 3 could make it harder for the party to retain its narrow Senate majority.
The rally is part of Trump’s efforts to mobilise support for Paxton, whom he backed in the Republican runoff against longtime Senator John Cornyn. Trump also held an unusual midterm convention in Dallas partly to boost Paxton, although he has publicly criticised the candidate, describing him as “a pain in the ass sometimes” before saying Republicans “need Ken so badly.”
Trump’s repeated appearances in Texas are part of a wider campaign push across Republican-leaning states where races have become more competitive than expected.
His 32-day campaign effort has taken him through Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska, while Vice President JD Vance has campaigned in Alaska. Trump and Vance won all six states in the 2024 presidential election.
Republicans are facing pressure as voters focus on high living costs and the war with Iran. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to record lows, with a recent poll putting his approval at 32%. Democrats led Republicans 44% to 37% among registered voters.
Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points in 2024, but recent polling has shown Talarico ahead of Paxton. Republicans are also defending competitive House seats in South Texas.
James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said a Republican loss in the Senate race would be “devastating for Republicans and devastating for Donald Trump” because of Trump’s backing for Paxton.
“I think the president clearly will do a lot to try to avoid that outcome,” Henson said.
Trump’s political operation has also spent millions on competitive House races. In San Antonio, Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran, is contesting a newly redrawn district that emerged from a Republican-led remapping Democrats have described as partisan gerrymandering. De La Cruz is expected to speak at Wednesday’s rally.
Trump and Paxton have had a strained relationship at times. Paxton was recorded telling donors that Republican candidates’ numbers fell after the Dallas convention, while Trump has publicly mocked his clothes, speaking style and appearance.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said in the recording.
Paxton’s campaign has disputed suggestions that the remarks were criticism of Trump.
A poll released October 3 showed Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 45% among likely voters.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said Trump’s support could help Paxton mobilise his base but may not be enough to secure victory.
“Trump’s visits are a Catch-22,” Rottinghaus said. “The president can inspire as much as he can repel.”
Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott, another close Trump ally who is facing a tighter-than-expected re-election race, plans to skip the rally because of other campaign events.
“My rallies are saving the Republican Party, again,” Trump said in an all-caps post on Truth Social on Tuesday.
Republicans are counting on Trump’s ability to turn out the voters who helped him win Texas in 2024, despite the decline in his broader approval ratings.
The latest poll showed that only 24% of Hispanic voters approved of Trump’s performance. Hispanic voters were an important part of his 2024 victory, when he won nearly half of their vote, and they make up a larger share of Texas’s electorate than in many other states.
Wednesday’s rally is scheduled to take place at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, with Trump expected to speak at 6 p.m. Central Time.
Ojo Triumph
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