Economic analyst Adetilewa Adebajo has warned that Nigeria may be emerging from economic fragility, but the pace of growth projected by the World Bank remains far too low to meaningfully reduce poverty.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, Adebajo reacted to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, which upgraded Nigeria’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, from an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025. The World Bank attributed the improved outlook to continued expansion in the services sector, particularly finance and information and communication technology, alongside a rebound in agriculture and modest growth in non-oil industries.
Adebajo said the upgraded projection reflects renewed international confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction, driven largely by recent policy signals from the federal government.
“Well, first of all, let us go to a statement that is credited to the Honourable Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Chief Wale Edun,” Adebajo said. “On the 28th of December, he gave a statement which resonated with the world after the strike by the United States on north-west Nigeria, where he assured investors and partners globally that Nigeria was not at war with itself or with any other nation, but that Nigeria was decisively, along with trusted international partners, combating terrorism.”
He said the minister’s message was deliberate and reassuring. “He stressed that this distinction was important,” Adebajo added. “In that statement, he summarised the gains of the Nigerian economy in the last two years and said Nigeria remains focused, reform-driven and committed to stability.”
According to Adebajo, the government’s emphasis on security, reforms and stability sent a strong signal to investors. “The fundamentals are straightening, the policy direction is clearer, and the resolve of the administration is to protect lives, secure property and grow Nigeria’s economy,” he said. “Nigeria remains open for business, calm and at peace, firmly focused on the future.”
He described these developments as a turning point. “That statement, to the international community and also to Nigerians, signifies the fact that the economy has indeed reached a point of inflexion,” Adebajo said. “What we mean by that is that we have come out from the brink and achieved economic stability.”
However, he cautioned that stability alone does not solve Nigeria’s deeper challenges. “Economic stability in itself is not the solution, because we still have about 140 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty,” he said. “Right now, we need growth strategies that will improve productivity and employment and lift a lot of people out of poverty.”
Adebajo disclosed that his firm, Corporate Finance Group (CFG), is even more optimistic than the World Bank. “In our outlook for 2026, we are predicting that the Nigerian economy will grow in excess of five per cent, which is higher than the World Bank’s projections,” he said, adding that CFG delayed publishing its outlook due to controversies surrounding recent inflation data.
Despite this optimism, he warned that such growth remains inadequate. “For a country like Nigeria with over 200 million people, five per cent growth is grossly inadequate,” Adebajo said. “Our economy needs at least eight to ten per cent growth on a sustainable basis to lift 140 million Nigerians out of poverty. That should be the goal.”
Responding to concerns that many Nigerians do not feel the impact of economic growth, Adebajo pointed to inflation and weak purchasing power. “The way to lift Nigerians out of poverty is to grow the economy at eight to ten per cent and significantly reduce inflation,” he said.
He revealed that CFG estimates inflation at about 21 to 22 per cent, citing credibility issues with official data. “The National Bureau of Statistics has been caught in controversy because inflation jumped from 14 per cent to 33 per cent between November and December,” he said. “That does not inspire confidence.”
According to him, uncertainty over inflation has constrained monetary policy. “The Monetary Policy Committee does not yet have the confidence to drop rates, so there is a crisis of confidence somewhere,” Adebajo said, noting that the situation is especially delicate in an election year.
On the structure of growth, Adebajo dismissed concerns that Nigeria remains overly dependent on oil. “Oil accounts for only about eight per cent of Nigeria’s GDP,” he said. “The significant growth drivers are in the non-oil sectors, which is a positive.”
He explained that agriculture, services and trade are key contributors to growth but warned that Nigeria struggles with sustainability. Drawing a comparison with Indonesia, Adebajo said inconsistent policies have held Nigeria back.
“Twenty-five years ago, Nigeria’s GDP was about 170 billion dollars and Indonesia’s was about 190 billion dollars,” he said. “Today, Indonesia’s GDP is about 1.4 trillion dollars, while Nigeria is struggling to reach 300 billion dollars. That shows we make starts and we make stops.”
Turning to policy prescriptions, Adebajo said fiscal weaknesses remain Nigeria’s biggest threat. “One of the key challenges we have is fiscal management,” he said. “There is a need for significant fiscal reform, including reviewing the Fiscal Responsibility Act.”
He also called for stricter control of government spending. “Government’s budget is too high, and our budgeting system is broken,” Adebajo said. “Last year, we could not fund our capital budget, and if you cannot fund capital spending, you cannot generate the growth multipliers the economy needs.”
He concluded with a call for restraint. “Government needs to cut its budget, as recommended by the World Bank and the IMF,” Adebajo said. “We are making projections we cannot fund. We need to cut our coat according to our size. That is the beginning.”
Boluwatife Enome
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