Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause as many as 451,000 excess deaths globally in the six months through February 2027, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday.
The Climate Impact Lab said the number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44 per cent compared with normal years, according to its report.
Nigeria is projected to record the highest number of excess heat-related fatalities between September 2026 and February 2027, with an estimated 31,400 deaths.
Indonesia is expected to record 19,300 excess deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,600.
Across Africa’s Sahel region, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, the researchers project an additional 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are also projected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths.
The researchers warned that the number of excess deaths could rise further if El Niño extends into 2027, with parts of the northern hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, particularly vulnerable during their summer months.
The Climate Impact Lab described this year’s El Niño as a “postcard from the future”, saying it is delivering temperatures that could become normal within just a few decades.
The researchers called for emergency response efforts to be directed towards high-priority regions to address heat-related mortality in the coming months.
“This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab.
Boluwatife Enome
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