Dr Sam Amadi, Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, has said the outcome of the Osun governorship election shows that the All Progressives Congress (APC) can be defeated when voters are determined to participate in the electoral process.
Speaking on ARISE News on Sunday, Amadi said the result had demonstrated that the ruling party could be beaten when voters came out to support candidates of their choice.
“It shows one thing, that APC can be beaten, with the people, with the competitors’ right, and the people are determined, and the people vote, and the people come out to put their votes. That’s the message from the opposition.”
Amadi said the result should serve as a message to opposition forces ahead of the 2027 general election, arguing that the outcome showed what could happen when people were willing to vote.
“But again, the bigger story is we can defeat APC. That’s what the people will take home if we work hard.”
He said the election had also energised those seeking to defeat President Bola Tinubu and the APC, while describing the stakes for the president in the Osun election as relatively low.
“But ultimately this has energized, this should energize the people who think they want to defeat President Tinubu. But the key point remains that the stake here is low for President Tinubu, like I keep saying. It was unnecessary, you know, it was unnecessarily exaggerated.”
Amadi said President Tinubu’s decision not to deploy his political influence to force a particular outcome was “self-serving but prudent”, arguing that attempting to prevent Governor Ademola Adeleke from winning could have cost the president politically.
“The government has already endorsed you, even if it’s, you know, it’s just political. It’s not fighting you, and so there’s nothing you lose, if Adeleke wins the election, he ought to win. But going out to pull him down to make sure he doesn’t win is actually what would damage you.”
He added: “So the president pulled back to save his political capital, because he needed to waste it on an outcome that does not, you know, really pan out much for him. So, and it was difficult for them to have surrendered that election. So, so it was self-serving but prudent.”
On the performance of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Amadi said the commission’s handling of the Osun election was a positive sign but warned against drawing conclusions before the 2027 elections.
“It’s a plus for INEC.”
He said INEC had the capacity to conduct credible elections if it could shield itself from partisan influence.
“And again, let me tell you, INEC has the capacity to do a lot of things right. If they really commit to it, if they can block themselves from political partisan control, INEC has the capacity to run a fairly 70-80% election. They can do it.”
However, Amadi said INEC should not be fully commended yet, citing previous experience where the commission’s performance changed when the stakes became higher.
“So for me, a plus for INEC, but at the same time, we should never, never sleep until the end of February, when we know for much, when we see the election cycle has completed.”
He added: “Because the last experience, everything was perfect. Everything. Capacity was there until Mahmoud decided to go roguish. There’s no explanation for that. So we’ll watch out.”
Amadi also criticised delays in the electronic transmission of results, saying INEC should ensure results are uploaded continuously so voters and political party agents can track the process.
“INEC should stop this idea of timing out upload on INEC portal for a very long time. We saw like five, six hours of no action. There’s no technical explanation for those kind of things.”
He said the lesson from Osun should ultimately be applied to the 2027 elections.
“INEC has done well, but we’re not going to be much amused. We’ll still be on our guards, and we’ll still pray for INEC and help INEC with ideas to do better on 2027.”
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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