Russian military losses in Ukraine are rising at their fastest pace since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, according to analysis, even as the United States intensifies efforts to broker a peace deal.
Over the past 10 months, Russian casualties have accelerated sharply. Russian media published around 40% more obituaries in 2025 than in the same period last year, suggesting a significant increase in deaths on the battlefield.
It was so far confirmed that nearly 160,000 named Russian fighters killed in Ukraine, based on open-source reporting, memorials and social media posts compiled with Mediazona and volunteer researchers.
Military experts estimate this figure represents only 45–65% of the true toll, putting the likely number of Russian dead between 243,000 and 352,000. While obituary counts remain provisional, they are considered a reliable indicator of changing combat intensity.
Casualty numbers rose notably during key moments in US-led diplomatic activity. After a relatively quiet January, deaths increased in February following the first direct talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Another peak came in August, when the two leaders met in Alaska. The deadliest period followed in October and November, as a second summit was cancelled and Washington presented a 28-point peace proposal, with obituaries averaging 322 per day double the 2024 rate.
Analysts say Moscow may be pushing for territorial gains to strengthen its negotiating position. Kremlin officials have recently cited battlefield “successes” as leverage in talks.
Many of those killed this year were not career soldiers. One example is Murat Mukashev, a Moscow activist who had opposed the war and protested against the Kremlin. Arrested on drug charges in 2024, he was offered freedom in exchange for military service under a law allowing charges to be dropped for those who enlist. After initially refusing, he later signed a contract, reportedly believing a peace deal would secure his early release. He was killed in June 2025 during fighting in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.
Data shows that volunteers civilians who signed contracts after the invasion began now make up a growing share of Russian casualties. While they accounted for 15% of deaths a year ago, they represent roughly one in three in 2025. Local authorities have offered large financial incentives and targeted people with debts or criminal charges, allowing the Kremlin to sustain troop numbers without ordering another mass mobilisation.
By October, officials said 336,000 people had joined the military in 2025 alone. Nato estimates that about 25,000 Russian soldiers are being killed each month, suggesting recruitment still exceeds losses.
Despite high pay promises up to 10 million roubles a year many recruits are unaware that contracts signed since September 2022 are automatically extended until the war ends.
Nato estimates Russia’s total casualties, including wounded, at around 1.1 million, with roughly 250,000 fatalities figures broadly in line with estimates. Ukrainian losses are also severe, with battlefield deaths believed to have reached up to 140,000, underscoring the devastating human cost of a war now entering its fourth year.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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