Economist and Senior Partner at SPM Professionals, Dr. Paul Alaje, has identified weak follow up as Nigeria’s biggest obstacle in converting investment agreements into tangible economic results, warning that repeated failures in execution continue to undermine the country’s global credibility.
Speaking in an interview on ARISE News on Sunday during a review of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent state visit to the United Kingdom, Alaje stressed that while the visit delivered significant agreements and investment commitments, the real test lies beyond the ceremonies.
“I think this visit is very significant, and it’s significant because of the economic implications for Nigeria, as well as the United Kingdom.”
However, he quickly shifted focus to what he described as Nigeria’s recurring weakness.
“I can tell you that follow-up seems to be the challenge.”
Alaje noted that Nigeria has continued to sign multiple Memoranda of Understanding and agreements with countries across the world, but has struggled to convert them into measurable outcomes due to poor execution frameworks.
“It’s important for all MOUs signed, for all agreements, which is even higher than MOU, agreements signed, there must be a team whose job will be to follow up, timeline to be submitted. The progress is either to be published or submitted to Nigerian authority. But most of the time, we don’t see this.”
He stressed that without structured implementation and accountability, the value of such agreements diminishes significantly.
“The real gist is in the implementation, not just in the celebration.”
Alaje explained that while the UK visit signals Nigeria’s intention to reposition itself as an investment destination, that ambition must be backed by consistency and credibility.
“Now, in the United Kingdom, it’s not just another visit that this should be considered, it should be considered as one with which Nigeria is saying, without equivocation, that investment could be made on our soil.”
He questioned whether Nigeria has the systems in place to convert that signal into reality.
“The question will now be beyond the visit, beyond signing MOU… Are we able to implement it?”
According to him, investors require more than promises, they need a stable and predictable environment free from bureaucratic bottlenecks.
“How do we make our nation beyond appearing as an opportunity, but as a place that is predictable, as a place where investors will come and there will be no bottleneck.”
Alaje also pointed to structural imbalances in Nigeria’s economic priorities, arguing that trade has not received the same level of attention as fiscal and monetary policy.
“The challenge here in Nigeria is that our attention for most of the time is just on fiscal side and monetary side. The third leg that is as important as fiscal as monetary is trade.”
On Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United Kingdom, he highlighted persistent weaknesses, particularly the country’s dependence on exporting raw materials while importing finished goods.
“For most of the things that we have, you see, our industry is importing raw materials. Meanwhile, we have agro-output, we have natural resource. But because of our inability to process them to what we become imputes to our industry, we still have to import them, even though those ones we buy from us, that we import from us as agro-output or minerals, then process them into industrial imputes, then we buy again from them. And this is the real challenge we have.”
He acknowledged that Nigeria is not currently positioned to reverse this trend in the short term.
“Are we really doing well in those two key areas? As of now, the answer is no. Do I think that we will get there really soon or pretty soon in short term? For now, the answer is also no.”
Alaje further raised concerns about the structure of some of the deals announced during the visit, suggesting that the benefits may not be evenly distributed.
“You see that for what Nigeria is getting, you cannot compare it with the benefit that goes to the United Kingdom.”
He explained that financing arrangements tied to such deals often place repayment burdens on Nigeria, particularly in the face of currency depreciation.
“Whichever way model that is used, we know that we are going to pay back anyway. And to be bad enough, if our currency get devalued, which means we’ll not be paying more Naira importers, we have to pay more for importing whatever they are bringing to the country.”
On migration, Alaje said the long-term solution lies in strengthening domestic opportunities to reduce the need for Nigerians to seek better conditions abroad.
“But most importantly, I think it’s important for us to build our country to be attractive enough to our home, where people will not need to overstay. Travelling out will be a choice, it will not be an escape route from their land.”
Turning to inflation, he projected sustained upward pressure on prices despite recent marginal declines in official figures.
“Clearly speaking, people need to know the effect of rebasing the inflation… Clearly prices is increasing from rent to food prices to prices of imported commodity, things that will be transported from one point to another. We are seeing that also increasing.”
He provided a near term outlook, warning that inflation is likely to remain elevated.
“Inflation will range above 15 percent to about 17.5 percent… Whether it will get to exactly 17.5 percent, but we know that it will be above 15 percent within that range.”
Alaje also linked global developments, including tensions in the Middle East, to rising fuel prices and economic strain in Nigeria.
“As of today, the price of diesel is about 1,700. PMS has increased above 1,000… If Brent crude increases to about 130, Nigeria should be expected to buy PMS above 1,500, and diesel might cross the 2,000 band.”
He warned that the impact will be directly felt by Nigerians.
“What does it mean to Nigeria? Higher inflation… you might have to pay more.”
Despite this, he acknowledged that local refining has helped cushion the effects.
“Dangote… has actually helped to reduce what the prices could have been. If they had imported, we would have depleted our reserves… it would also have affected exchange rates.”
Alaje concluded with a stark warning on the consequences of continued inaction.
“Failure to plan for today, for the next two years, will mean that in the next two years, prices will go up, exchange rate will be weaker, people may lose their job, and of course, hunger may also be more sporadic that we’re experiencing right now.”
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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