A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Femi Otubanjo, says President Bola Tinubu is not obliged to campaign in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory ahead of the 2027 general elections, arguing that political rallies are primarily meant to mobilise and energise party supporters rather than communicate directly with the entire electorate.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Otubanjo said modern communication technologies, including television, radio, the internet and artificial intelligence, provide more effective ways for political candidates to communicate their messages to Nigerians.
“The reality, of course, is that it is not compulsory for the president to campaign in 36 states. When the president goes to campaign, he is a candidate of the APC, not the president of Nigeria. So he has the obligation to speak to everybody.
“In any case, what you call campaign, that is, a distinction must be made between political rallies and campaign rallies. What you call campaign rallies in Nigeria are a misnomer. They are merely political rallies.
“I watched your programme where somebody was comparing our situation with that of Donald Trump. Donald Trump exemplifies what a political rally is. A political rally is the rallying of your converts. When you go to a rally, you are dealing with people who are already convinced about you.
“You can take your time and watch a video of a typical Nigerian rally. It is all noise. It is all about bragging about what they have achieved or bragging about what they can achieve. It is not about convincing anybody.
“Attendance at rallies is not really a venue. It is not a platform for the president to address the nation.”
Otubanjo said the number of people reached through physical rallies was relatively small compared with Nigeria’s population, even if the president visited every state capital and the Federal Capital Territory.
“Let me do the arithmetic of it for you. Assuming that the president goes to 36 of all the state capitals and the Federal Capital is 37, you know that in all those capitals, the total number of Nigerians living in them are 59.6 million, estimate, 2025 population estimate.
“If every soul in that city attends a rally, you will still be talking to only one-fifth to one-sixth of the Nigerian population. So the whole idea that the president will use a rally to talk to Nigerians is really a falsehood.
“But more critically, every rally, and I am lucky to have been involved in managing many, the average attendance will be between 30,000 to 40,000 to 50,000.
“That is, at all 37 venues, you are going to be addressing 180 million people, if it is 50,000 people. If it is 30,000, you are dealing with 0.44 per cent of the Nigerian population. If it is 50,000, you are dealing with 0.74 per cent.
“So a political rally is not an instrument of communication with the public. It is a modus of energising your supporters. It is more like what you find when the Pope visits other countries and does these huge masses.
“They are not avenues for evangelism. They are not avenues for conversion. They are avenues for reassurance, for re-energising the people that where we are, we are Catholics, we are APC, we are ADC, we are NDC. Let’s work together, and so on.
“So the political rally is a surplus to requirement. If you are looking at a good campaign strategy, it is probably not advised that anybody should hold it. Two or three minutes on a live television is more effective, more productive, than the order of a radio station, just by two or three minutes on the television station.”
Responding to questions about whether political parties should abandon rallies altogether and focus on direct communication with voters, Otubanjo maintained that modern technology had changed the effectiveness of traditional campaign methods.
He also addressed questions about concerns over Tinubu’s age, health and capacity to campaign across the country, saying there was no reason the president could not publicly acknowledge physical limitations if they affected his ability to campaign.
“I was referring to Franklin Roosevelt, who was president of America during the Second World War until 1945, when he died. He was on a wheelchair from day one, and he had polio 12 years before he became president. Nobody is of perfect health. Even Donald Trump, everybody talks about the state of his health, but he is holding on and so on.
“I think really part of our own culture here, which is unfortunate, is that we do not declare our health. When people die, nobody says what killed them. We like to hide. We have a Superman mentality.
“I agree entirely. There is no reason why the president cannot say, ‘I am not up to it. My strength cannot carry it.’ But then you must look at the other side. The moment the president declares that he is not well, the focus will be on that.
“Everything that he does, this man has made a mistake because he is not well. The focus will be on his health. We all can know that the president is an old man. He is in his 70s.”
On whether Nigerian presidential candidates should publicly declare their health status and fitness before elections, Otubanjo said the country’s political and cultural environment influenced how such disclosures were received.
Otubanjo further argued that political parties should rely on their organisational structures and modern communication channels to reach voters rather than treating rallies as the primary means of campaigning.
He subsequently clarified his position, saying traditional rallies were becoming outdated in the face of technological advances.
“I can say to you that campaigns are obsolete. When you use the example of Franklin Roosevelt, they are obsolete. We have the fruits of technology, of the internet, of AI to carry messages. Messages are carried more effectively at different levels. That’s why parties have structure.
“When you say a party does not have a structure, it means that it does not have the means of communicating. It does not have people at the polling booth level, the ward level, the local government level, the state level and the national level. And then, of course, you also have area fathers. You have people who are mobilisers. So there’s a structure of communication. It is not television.
“You don’t campaign in rallies. You just mobilise your, you just energise your supporters. People don’t even listen.
“Those things are put on television. You have gone to another, when they are put on television, you have gone to another medium. A very effective medium is television or radio. I saw an advert just before I came on.”
His comments followed criticism from some stakeholders and opposition figures over Tinubu’s decision to attend selected campaign rallies ahead of the 2027 elections.
Boluwatife Enome
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