Oil output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) edged lower in November, despite an agreement to raise production for the month, due to outages in some member nations.
OPEC pumped 28.40 million barrels per day last month, down 30,000 bpd from October’s total, the survey showed, with Nigeria and Iraq recording the largest declines, a Reuters report showed.
The survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on flow data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows, such as Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
OPEC+, comprising OPEC and allies including Russia, has slowed the pace of its monthly output increases amid concerns of a supply glut. Many members are running close to capacity limits and some are tasked with extra cuts to compensate for earlier overproduction, limiting the impact of further increases.
Under an agreement by eight OPEC+ members covering November output, the five of them that are OPEC members – Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – were to raise output by 85,000 bpd before the effect of compensation cuts totalling 140,000 bpd for Iraq and the UAE.
The survey showed that the actual increase by the five was 40,000 bpd.
Iraq posted lower exports, according to data and sources in the survey, due to pipeline maintenance.
In Nigeria, a fire on the Yoho production platform and its resulting shutdown helped lower shipments.
Estimates of output in Iraq and the UAE varied widely, with many outside sources putting the countries’ output higher than the countries themselves.
While the Reuters survey and data provided by OPEC’s secondary sources showed they are pumping close to the quotas, other estimates, such as those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said they are pumping significantly higher volumes.
Meanwhile, oil prices edged up nearly 1 per cent to a two-week high at the weekend on increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which could boost economic growth and energy demand, as well as geopolitical uncertainty that could limit supplies from Russia and Venezuela.
Brent futures rose 49 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to settle at $63.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 41 cents, or 0.7 per cent, to settle at $60.08.
Those were the highest closes for both crude benchmarks since November 18. For the week, Brent was up about 1 per cent and WTI was up about 3 per cent, marking a second straight weekly gain for both contracts.
Investors digested a U.S. inflation report and recalibrated expectations for the Fed to reduce rates at its December 9-10 meeting. U.S. consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster labor market and the rising cost of living curbed demand.
Traders have been pricing in an 87 per cent chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Separately, top Chinese and U.S. officials held a call on Friday to discuss trade, including ongoing efforts to implement an agreement to their trade war.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he will meet with the leaders of Mexico and Canada to discuss trade issues on Friday after they gathered in Washington for the 2026 World Cup draw.
Any talks that could reduce trade tensions between the U.S. and other nations could boost economic growth and energy demand.
Investors also focused on news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned OPEC+ members will increase or decrease in the future. The failure of U.S. talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine has helped to boost oil prices so far.
Emmanuel Addeh
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