Political analyst Chukwuma Okenwa has said that Nigerians will judge President Bola Tinubu’s administration ahead of the 2027 general election based on whether their lives have improved, rather than the government’s claims about economic reforms.
Okenwa, who spoke in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Saturday, said the outcome of the Osun State governorship election had renewed confidence that Nigerians could make their votes count, but warned that replicating the same level of electoral credibility during a nationwide election would be more challenging.
He said, “I would say that the Osun election is a case of renewed hope in the sense that Nigerians can believe that their votes can actually count.
“But the sad reality is that when you have a general election compared to an off-cycle election, in an off-cycle election, all attention, including international observers, all stakeholders and the media, focuses on one state. So, it is practically impossible to subvert the will of the people.
“But when it is free for all, all man to himself, happening across the federation, you look at the scale and the challenge of managing a free, fair and credible election becomes quite a challenge.”
According to him, the economy and security would be the dominant issues in the 2027 presidential election, as voters would primarily be concerned about how political leaders intend to improve their living conditions.
“On a massive scale, globally, two issues really stand out: economy and security. And for modern states, for developed nations, the top issue becomes that of migration, which in a broader sense is an integral part of security,” he said.
“What citizens always demand for is, so how are you going to make our life better? You need to live in order to enjoy life.
“But if you’re living and you’re not having the means to enjoy life, then there’s a challenge.”
Okenwa said the 2027 election would differ from the 2023 contest because President Tinubu, who was one of the major presidential contenders in 2023, would now be seeking re-election based on his record in office.
He said, “Despite all of the rhetorics, what is going to differ from the 2023 election? Because the three key candidates, who were the key players then, are still dominating the conversation currently.
“By 2023, Tinubu was not the president. By 2023, he had also not had an opportunity to show people what he can do. So now he has done it.
“And then people now have that first-hand experience to actually assess, not just in records, but in reality. Because in economics, you must match microeconomic indices with macroeconomic indices.
“You won’t tell me, ‘Okay, I’ve done reforms that will better your life,’ and then I want to give you feedback and you say, ‘I don’t care whatever you say, I know your life is better.’
“I know that you assess food now, right? Transport is cheaper for you. Things are, life is better.
“So the masses are really going to critically assess and ask the basic question: Is my life today better than what it was three years ago when President Tinubu took over the hands of our leadership in Nigeria?”
Assessing the major issues being raised by the leading presidential contenders, Okenwa said Tinubu should be judged by his record in government, while Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi would be presenting proposals for what they would do if elected.
“So basically, in the case of Tinubu, I mean, he wouldn’t be speaking like Obi or Atiku, who are here to, like, for them, this is like a proposal. This is what we’ll do,” he said.
“So now you are going to assess it based on what is done.”
Okenwa said he agreed with the decision to remove fuel subsidy but criticised the manner in which the reform was implemented, arguing that the government lacked sufficient strategic foresight in managing its consequences.
“I agree that subsidy needs to go, but the mannerisms, the approach differed and has always differed,” he said.
“And I think personally, the challenges I actually had with the bold reforms, I call that bold reforms because it’s indeed bold, you know, and something that it takes a lot of courage to do, that was led by the Tinubu administration.
“The only challenge I have is in managing those changes, what we call strategic foresight, seemed to be lacking from the beginning.
“Coming just on the first day to announce ‘subsidy is gone’, we saw how that sparked a shock across the market, with instances that would have been managed, even like kind of doing that gradually.”
He also questioned how increased government revenue from subsidy removal had translated into improved living conditions for Nigerians.
Okenwa said, “When you have a situation where you gain some funds, like in times past, we have the Petroleum Trust Fund, specifically earmarked to make some capital inputs into the lives of Nigerians, which is going to have an incremental impact on the lives of the people.
“So now what we have is the president telling us, ‘Okay, we removed this subsidy, states now have more money to pay salaries.’
“Meanwhile, when you calculate what is the minimum wage now, as against the dollar right now, it’s about N70,000, it’s about $47. But then it was around, like, when it was about N30,000, that was $60-something.
“So can you actually say that you’ve improved the lives of the people?
“Because when you look at economics, it’s not just about the numbers or ‘we’re making progress, this is happening’, telling us maybe the reserves. But the question also would be, what is the current profile of Nigeria?
“If you are saving more money for us, show the records. We want to see that reflected.
“And these things are very practical, that when you make some bold reforms, and the president assures Nigerians hardship is going to be temporary, there’s going to be immediate palliatives, and just within the shortest time possible, Nigerians are going to see the impact.
“The question is, where are the impacts, where the masses can actually tell?”
The political analyst urged all presidential candidates to make the economy and security the centre of their campaigns while avoiding rhetoric based on ethnicity and religion.
“Honestly, what we want all of them to focus on is economy and security. That’s our interest,” Okenwa said.
“Let nobody descend into using ethnicity, religion, as a means to further divide Nigeria.
“The simple truth is that Nigerians are actually much more united than we appreciate. It is our political leaders, and usually during political times like this.”
He said economic challenges affected Nigerians across geographical and ethnic lines, making the identity of the region from which a president came less important than the policies implemented by the government.
“I’ve not seen any time where I travel in one part of the country, and I see them experiencing something entirely different from what they experience in other regions,” he said.
“If the cost of bread in Enugu is rising, I was in Kano recently, it’s rising in Lagos also. I mean, no region is immune from policy impacts on the citizens.
“So we want the leaders, potential leaders also, and the current leader to tell us, what are you going to do differently?”
Okenwa also criticised the tone of political communication by the Tinubu administration, saying government officials should focus more on explaining what had been achieved and what remained to be done instead of sounding like opposition campaigners.
“One of the things I think that I’m really not comfortable with, with the current administration, even before this election period, where you have presidential spokesmen coming to talk as though they still want to get into power, maybe an Obi or Atiku,” he said.
“And it’s more or less like, ‘Okay, what would you have done this?’ At that point, it’s no more politics, it is governance.
“You wanted power, you said you’re going to fix electricity within four years. That was one of the things that was said, and if it doesn’t fix electricity, don’t vote for him.
“Now, what you’re not going to see is rather than the president coming to tell us, ‘This is actually why we couldn’t achieve this, and this is how far we’ve gone. If you entrust us with this power, within the next two years, we are going to do that. These are the issues we want to look at.’
“Not like when somebody mentioned that, you’re like, ‘This is our position. They don’t want us back’ and stuff like that.”
Okenwa further questioned the quality of policy-driven political communication at the start of the 2027 campaign, saying Nigerians deserved clear presentations of candidates’ records and plans.
“I was hoping that on the day that INEC’s campaign has started for the presidential election, I was hoping that practically all of the candidates, including the ruling party candidate who’s the president, will come out with a clip, as you find elsewhere in the US, in America, in India, even in South Africa, detailing what you have done so far, if you’re in power, or what you will do if you are going to get into power, if you are contenders,” he said.
“What we’ve seen so far, essentially, are press release attack communications.”
He also expressed concern over the absence of clearly identified campaign directors-general and the limited use of public opinion polling.
“There’s no DG. There’s no DG of the campaign of any party that you can say, ‘This is the director-general of the campaign for Party A, for Party B.’ It is the spokesperson of the president that is defending the thing in a campaign, in an election period,” he said.
Okenwa said polling agencies should also have provided Nigerians with assessments of the candidates’ standings as campaigns commenced.
“The day that INEC says we are starting, I was hoping that there would be at least two or three important polling agencies that would say, ‘This is where, by our own polling, all the candidates stand,’” he said.
“Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Sowore, Donald Duke, etcetera. Nothing. Nothing to say, ‘This is where they are now.’
“In one month’s time, because they have started campaigning, this is where they will be.”
Asked whether he was disappointed, Okenwa said, “Yes, certainly. And I think this really bothers on the lack of proactivity in our culture.”
He said the absence of proactive political planning was a reflection of weaknesses in Nigeria’s intellectual and policy ecosystem.
“And when you have a team that is not proactive, so just imagine, on a lighter mood, if any of them had you as a consultant for them, such kind of gap would not be witnessed,” he said.
“When you assemble the best minds, they’re able to think in the future.”
On the absence of early polling, he said, “I think it’s an indictment on the intellectual circles and think tanks we have across Nigeria.
“That issue of also, like, see how what is working for other cultures and see how we can replicate same, right? And I do hope that some are listening and want to see.”
Turning to the Independent National Electoral Commission, Okenwa said the commission played a critical role in the Osun election but warned that the scale of the 2027 general election would present a much greater challenge.
“I think for Osun, they played a critical role. For 2027 election, just like 2023, the dynamics of our election is that it doesn’t even, in many cases, end with INEC,” he said.
“You still have the role of the judiciary, waiting to consolidate whatever thing that INEC does.”
Okenwa said the integrity of electoral institutions was essential to restoring confidence in Nigeria’s democracy.
“But I think these institutions must save Nigeria’s democracy,” he said.
“My thinking is that if a politician engages in voter suppression, vote buying, and at the end of the day, the people’s will translates to outcomes, what people are saying becomes eventually what is announced, it builds confidence, and there’ll be less need to go to the courts.
“And when these matters also come to the court, the judiciary must help the nation.
“And why the role of the judiciary is very critical is that if you spend a lot rigging elections and know that the judiciary is going to give you the rightful winner, then of course, that is a deterrent from going ahead with all of this.”
He said the judiciary must remain independent and serve as a reliable defender of the Constitution.
“So the judiciary must truly be the dean of democracy, the last hope of all Nigerians, where you can look at, because it’s all about protecting the Nigerian Constitution,” Okenwa said.
He also called for greater institutional integrity, arguing that public officials should be guided by constitutional responsibilities regardless of who appointed them.
“There has been that long-age debate: do we really have a lot of holes to fill in terms of institutional integrity? Like some of us suggested, or the president shouldn’t be the one to appoint a chairman, or this, this, this, that, that, that,” he said.
“I think our problem, as a nation, is that we need to reflect to understand that the same way by the Constitution of Nigeria, provision was made for INEC, in that same Constitution, whatever role you occupy on behalf of the nation, the standard is that by that same Constitution that you sit on that position and you must defend it at all costs.”
Drawing a comparison with the United States, Okenwa said political affiliation should not prevent judges and public officials from upholding constitutional principles.
“I always say something that the US system seemed to be more porous in terms of administrative interference in Nigeria,” he said.
“And I want to give two instances. In the US, you have Republican judges and Democrat judges at the federal level.
“And currently the standings are six versus three, six Republican judges. But guess what? Most of those administrative orders, executive orders that Trump has given, they struck it out.
“Can you imagine? We’re like, you know, we say judges are political, but they’re more political than anybody else. Yes, it’s important.”
Okenwa also cited former US Vice President Mike Pence’s refusal to overturn the 2020 presidential election outcome despite pressure from then-President Donald Trump.
He said, “In the US, whoever is vice president, right, is also the Senate president of the Congress. And that means also the responsibility of issuing certificate of return is on your shoulders.
“What’s going to happen in the case of Mike Pence, right, for a ticket he has entrusted?
“How can someone have the responsibility? You are the vice president and the nation expects you to issue a certificate of return. And now the opposition won.
“And guess what? When his boss told him, ‘This is what I wanted to do’, despite all of the dramatics that happened at the Capitol, Mike Pence still insisted, ‘I will respect the Constitution.’ He told his boss.
“So I think Nigerians can learn from that.”
Boluwatife Enome
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