NATO leaders, including US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are meeting this week to agree on a significant increase in defence spending across the alliance despite nearly one-third of member states failing to meet the existing 2% of GDP target.
The proposed new threshold, unveiled at the summit, calls for members to dedicate 5% of their economies to “core defence” and related security areas. It’s a dramatic leap, intended to boost NATO’s collective capabilities in an era of rising geopolitical threats, especially from Russia.
However, recent NATO data shows that nine member nations have not yet met the current 2% goal, with Spain ranking as the alliance’s lowest spender at just 1.2% of GDP in 2024.
President Trump, a vocal critic of under-spending allies, singled out Spain as “notorious” for failing to contribute adequately. He has previously warned he might not defend NATO nations that don’t meet their commitments and would “encourage” adversaries to act as they wish.
The split is not just financial, but geographical, according to defence experts. Rachel Ellehuus, director at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that countries closest to Russia mainly in NATO’s north and east have increased their spending significantly, while southern allies lag behind.
“The allies who feel the most immediate threat from Russia are those investing more,” Ellehuus stated.
Despite the pressure, the 2% benchmark remains non-binding, with no legal penalties for countries that fall short. Yet political pressure, especially from Washington, has proven effective. Former NATO official Jamie Shea noted, “Nobody wants to be called a bad ally.”
All member nations have increased their defence budgets between 2014 and 2024. Overall, excluding the US, NATO’s average spending has now reached 2% of GDP up from 1.4% a decade ago.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has promised to hit the 2% mark by 2025, and says Spain may reach 2.1% by year’s end. Yet Sánchez argues that the new 5% goal is “incompatible with our worldview,” and claims to have secured an exemption. Spanish officials have stressed the importance of smart defence procurement over raw spending increases.
“We didn’t see the need for large armed forces, instead focusing on disaster response,” explained Mario Saavedra, diplomatic correspondent for El Periódico. “But things are changing very fast.”
Several other NATO countries have pledged to meet the 2% target soon, including:
Canada, which spent 1.5% in 2024, now says it will hit 2% by March 2025.
Belgium plans to add €4 billion in spending this year, raising its total from 1.3% to 2%.
Portugal now says it will meet the 2% target this year four years ahead of schedule.
Italy expects to reach 2% in 2024, up from 1.5% last year.
Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for driving up NATO spending. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised the former president’s influence, a message Trump highlighted on his Truth Social platform, “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.”
In absolute terms, the United States remains NATO’s defence heavyweight, contributing $935 billion in 2024 equal to 3.2% of its GDP and more than all other NATO countries combined.
Among European allies, Poland led with 4.1% of GDP, followed by Estonia and Latvia at 3.4%.
As the alliance seeks unity in a more volatile world, the debate over how much to spend and how fast continues to test NATO’s cohesion.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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