Morgan Stanley has sharply upgraded its outlook for China’s humanoid robotics industry, saying the sector is moving from experimentation to large-scale commercial deployment much faster than previously anticipated.
The Wall Street bank on Tuesday revised its forecast for China’s humanoid robot shipments for the second time this year, projecting that 50,000 units will be shipped in 2026 — almost double its earlier estimate of 28,000 units. The latest projection also marks a significant jump from the bank’s initial forecast of 14,000 units issued in January.
Morgan Stanley now estimates that China’s humanoid robotics market will be worth approximately $2 billion this year and expand to $15 billion by 2030. Annual shipments are expected to climb to 446,000 units by the end of the decade.
The forecast covers only external sales and excludes robots produced for prototypes, pre-order testing or internal corporate use.
“Commercial verification, policy support, and supply-chain feedback point to faster humanoid adoption in China,” Sheng Zhong, an equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note released on Tuesday.
The revised outlook underscores China’s increasingly aggressive drive to establish itself as a global leader in humanoid robotics, with domestic manufacturers accelerating production and deploying robots across factories, convenience stores, restaurants and other commercial settings.
Beijing has also elevated the development of “embodied AI” — artificial intelligence embedded in physical systems such as robots — to a national priority over the next five years. Authorities have encouraged local governments to support robotics startups through subsidies, land allocations and office space, while directing banks to provide favourable financing terms.
The growing momentum has also drawn the attention of global investors.
According to research firm Omdia, around 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped globally last year, with Chinese companies occupying the top five positions by shipment volumes. U.S.-based Figure AI ranked seventh, while Tesla placed ninth.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk had earlier said that the company’s Optimus humanoid robot would not be available for public sale until the end of 2027.
Joe Ngai, Senior Partner and Chairman of McKinsey Greater China, said humanoid robotics could emerge as the next major investment theme linked to China’s technological advancement.
“When you walk outside [in China], you see all these startups and more advanced companies, all these robots dancing — but robotics usage on the industrial side is often a below-the-radar story,” Ngai said on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Dalian.
He added: “If you go to any Chinese factory right now, there’s more automation and robotics that’s been deployed than anywhere else in the world.”
Morgan Stanley said its supply-chain field research further supported expectations of faster commercialisation, citing increasing adoption in manufacturing and logistics operations, alongside broader deployment in unmanned retail outlets and interactive commercial services.
The investment bank identified Shanghai-listed Leaderdrive as one of the companies best positioned to benefit from the humanoid robotics boom.
Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month target price for the company to 464 yuan ($68), up from 269 yuan previously.
The Suzhou-based firm supplies precision robotic components to Chinese humanoid robot manufacturers, including Ubtech and Galbot.
Zhong said Leaderdrive could command a 40% share of the global market this year and maintain around 25% market share over the longer term.
“Leaderdrive could hold a 40% global market share this year and 25% over the longer term,” Zhong said, attributing the outlook to “robust shipments and its strong customer exposure.”
Chinese robotics companies are also increasingly pursuing international expansion as they seek new growth opportunities.
Seer Intelligent, the Shanghai-based robotics company that made its Hong Kong market debut on Wednesday, has been expanding beyond China since 2021.
According to Jonathan Fan, the company’s Chief Operating Officer, overseas operations spanning more than 65 countries accounted for 18% of total revenue last year.
However, Fan cautioned that geopolitical risks remain a major challenge.
He said on Monday that “geopolitical uncertainty and simmering trade tensions remain the most significant headwind.”
Fan said the company was mitigating those risks by pursuing broader geographic diversification and ensuring strict compliance with regulations in every market where it operates.
Meanwhile, concerns in Washington over China’s rapid advances in artificial intelligence continue to intensify, particularly over the prospect of increased global reliance on Chinese technologies.
Suzanne Nossel, Lester Crown Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and International Order at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, warned that the United States risks losing influence over how AI technologies are deployed globally if it focuses exclusively on technological breakthroughs.
“If Washington treats the contest solely as a race to hit new capability benchmarks, it could lead in invention but fall behind in influencing where and how AI is used worldwide,” Nossel wrote in an opinion article published by Foreign Policy this week.
“A sales campaign for the US AI stack will not jump-start adoption fast enough to keep pace with China,” she added.
Boluwatife Enome
Follow us on:
