Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly risky despite plans by the United States to escort vessels through the strategic waterway, according to maritime analyst Matt Wright. Rising tensions in the Middle East and recent attacks on ships in the region have significantly reduced vessel movement through the corridor, which serves as a key route for global oil shipments. Wright said the continued threat from Iran has left many ship operators reluctant to transit the strait, forcing hundreds of vessels to delay movement or remain stranded within the Middle East Gulf.
Speaking during an interview with ARISE News on Thursday, Wright explained that while the United States has proposed providing naval escorts and lower insurance costs for vessels passing through the waterway, the move may not be enough to restore confidence among shipowners. “The threat from Iran still remains very, very high,” he said, noting that the security situation around the strait remains extremely volatile.
According to Wright, the Strait of Hormuz is not formally closed but has effectively become inaccessible for many vessels due to the high risk of attack. “The Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed. It is closed sort of de facto,” he said, explaining that the danger of further strikes has discouraged ships from attempting to transit the route.
He added that more than ten vessels have been struck across the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman in recent days, highlighting the growing sophistication of Iranian military capabilities. Wright said the attacks have created widespread concern within the shipping industry, with operators prioritizing crew safety over commercial schedules.
Wright also cautioned that the use of naval escorts could potentially increase risks for vessels rather than reduce them. “The use of a naval escort could even be more risky because you could be attracting more attention to those vessels,” he said.
Despite the tensions, Wright noted that ships operating in the region continue to receive insurance coverage, as maritime insurers have historically protected vessels during conflicts.
However, he said the cost of operating in the Gulf has risen significantly as insurers adjust premiums to reflect the growing risks.
“There is no risk of vessels not being insured,” he said. “There will be a premium. Vessels are now going to have to pay more if they’re operating in that area.”
Shipping data also shows that many vessels currently inside the Middle East Gulf have already loaded crude oil and other cargo but remain unable to leave the region due to security concerns. According to Wright, these ships are effectively waiting for safer conditions before attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Some operators have begun diverting vessels to alternative routes, including ports along the Red Sea where crude oil can be transported through pipelines from Saudi Arabia’s eastern fields. However, Wright noted that the Red Sea also carries security risks due to threats from Houthi militants in Yemen.
Looking ahead, Wright said shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to recover until tensions between Iran and Western powers ease significantly. “We do anticipate that there will be some return to transits,” he said, adding that a diplomatic breakthrough or reduction in attacks could allow shipping flows to gradually resume.
Triumph Ojo
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