Japanese voters went to the polls on Sunday in a closely watched upper house election that could significantly weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s grip on power, with inflation and immigration emerging as key voter concerns.
According to opinion polls, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, risk falling short of the 50 seats needed to retain their majority in the 248-seat upper house, where half of the seats are up for election.
Smaller opposition parties are projected to gain ground, particularly those campaigning on promises of tax cuts and increased public spending. Among them is the right-wing Sanseito, which has taken a hard line against immigration and foreign investment while opposing recent gender equality initiatives.
“I am attending graduate school but there are no Japanese around me. All of them are foreigners,” said 25-year-old student Yu Nagai, who voted for Sanseito.
“When I look at the way compensation and money are spent on foreigners, I think that Japanese people are a bit disrespected,” he added.
Voting closes at 8 p.m. local time (1100 GMT), with projections from media outlets expected shortly afterwards based on exit polls.
Analysts warn that a poor performance by the ruling coalition could unsettle financial markets, derail crucial trade negotiations with the United States, and leave Ishiba politically vulnerable. Japan faces an August 1 deadline to finalise a trade deal with Washington or risk facing tariffs in its largest export market.
Failure to reach an agreement could trigger economic repercussions, particularly as inflation continues to squeeze households. Rice prices have already doubled since last year, increasing pressure on the government to offer relief despite its insistence on fiscal restraint.
The LDP has resisted opposition calls for sweeping tax cuts and higher welfare spending, citing concerns over bond market volatility and fiscal discipline.
“Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises,” said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan.
“Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations.”
Sunday’s vote follows the LDP’s worst performance in 15 years during last October’s lower house elections, when it lost its majority in the more powerful chamber of parliament. That result sparked financial turbulence and exposed Ishiba to potential no-confidence votes, which could force a snap general election.
Many voters expressed frustration over the government’s performance.
“The LDP has been running the government without resolving anything,” said 59-year-old novelist Kaoru Kawai, who backed the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
While Japan has long been governed by the LDP and avoided the political polarisation seen in other industrialised nations, this election could signal a new period of instability in the world’s fourth-largest economy.
Follow us on:
