Global anxiety is rising over the economic fallout of the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, with analysts warning that disruptions to energy and fertiliser supplies could trigger widespread food scarcity and rising inflation.
The war is already pushing up oil prices and threatening key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of higher transport, farming and food production costs worldwide.
Owing to this, experts in agriculture and economics have urged the Nigerian government to take proactive measures that would mitigate the negative effects of scarcity of fertiliser on the country’s food security.
This comes as a report Friday indicated that the Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The experts who spoke on the looming food shortage warned that lack of access to fertiliser by farmers during this planting season in Nigeria could lower food production, plunge the country to high food costs and reverse the gains recorded in decelerating food price inflation in the country.
These views were expressed by the Chief Executive Officer of CPPE Dr. Muda Yusuf; Acting Chairman, Lagos State Chapter of All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Mr. Shakin Agbeyewa, and the Agric Sectorial Group Chairman, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Omotunde Banjoko, in separate interviews with THISDAY on Friday.
Yusuf said the ongoing war in Iran was disrupting the shipment of fertiliser and threatening Nigeria with a looming food security risk.
He, therefore, said the government should urgently consider targeted and time-bound fiscal concessions on critical fertiliser inputs and production-related charges in order to moderate the rise in domestic fertiliser prices.
Yusuf said: “This is a serious concern because fertiliser is one of the most important productivity-enhancing inputs in agriculture.
“The ongoing conflict has already unsettled global fertiliser markets, especially the market for urea, while the wider disruption in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating significant supply and logistics pressures across energy, shipping and input markets.”
“For Nigeria, this poses a direct risk to food production and food prices. Fertiliser costs were already under pressure before the present escalation.
“These pressures are especially troubling for Nigerian agriculture because a large proportion of farmers are smallholders with weak purchasing power and limited capacity to absorb input cost shocks.
“If fertiliser becomes unaffordable or inaccessible, application rates will decline, yields will weaken, food output will suffer, and food inflation could begin to rise again.”
Yusuf further suggested that government should activate strategic coordination among the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Industry and Trade, as well as customs, ports and transport authorities, to ensure that fertiliser supplies are prioritised and distribution bottlenecks minimised.
He also made a strong case for temporary risk-sharing support for small holder farmers through well-targeted input support mechanisms, especially for the most vulnerable food-producing belts.
Speaking in the same vein, Agbeyewa noted that the disruption in the supply of fertiliser would have a telling negative effect on the cost of food production and food prices in Nigerian markets.
He said the high landing cost of fertiliser and high costs of transportation would make it to be out of the reach of poor farmers.
He, therefore, tasked the government to investigate the collapse of multiple fertiliser blending plants in Nigeria and find ways of resuscitating them.
He said: “What is happening to Nigeria’s policy on fertiliser blending plants? We used to have these blending plants but all of sudden they just stopped functioning. Couldn’t the government look into why they stopped and revive them?”
Similarly, Banjoko said that prices of fertiliser and food products would certainly escalate following the disruption of the shipment of fertiliser.
He said this would invariably increase the cost of production for farmers who would certainly transfer them to consumers.
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