The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has credited President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms with rebuilding Nigeria’s external reserves to $55 billion, restoring external sector stability, and repositioning the country for sustainable economic growth.
The policy think-tank said the achievement represented a significant departure from the years when successive administrations depleted the country’s oil windfalls without building adequate financial buffers to withstand external shocks.
In a policy statement by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI recalled that Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA), which stood at $22 billion in 2008, had dwindled to less than $3 billion by 2014, despite the historic oil revenues generated during the period.
It alleged that previous administrations between 1999 and 2015 squandered substantial oil earnings on short-term consumption, including a $12 billion Paris Club debt payoff and the funding of what it described as an unconstitutional ECA that state governors routinely depleted.
The group also accused the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) of expending billions of dollars defending an artificial naira exchange rate peg and subsidising imported refined petroleum products, while domestic refineries remained largely dysfunctional.
According to IMPI, the consequences became evident when global oil prices crashed in late 2014, leaving Nigeria without adequate financial buffers to cushion the impact. Poverty subsequently surged to between 45 and 53 per cent, while the economy slipped into recession in 2016.
It said the structural weaknesses also resulted in persistent current account deficits, which reached $17 billion in 2019 and $15.8 billion in 2020.
However, IMPI said the country’s economic trajectory began to change in 2023 following Tinubu’s introduction of major market-oriented reforms, particularly the unification of the foreign exchange market and removal of petrol subsidy.
It said although the reforms initially imposed significant economic hardship, they helped re-engineer Nigeria’s external balance sheet, moving the country from persistent external deficits to a sustained period of current account and merchandise trade surpluses.
“While painful initially, the reforms re-engineered Nigeria’s external balance sheet. Nigeria moved from volatile deficits to a multi-year streak of current account and merchandise trade surpluses,” the think-tank stated.
The group disclosed that Nigeria’s gross external reserves had increased from $45 billion to $55 billion by the third quarter of 2026, providing more than 14 months of import cover.
It described the development as evidence of the government’s decision to pursue difficult but necessary economic adjustments rather than sustain policies that encouraged distortions and weakened the country’s external position.
IMPI stated, “The current regime took the harder, necessary path – dismantling unsustainable subsidies and distortions to build a self-sustaining economy backed by real productivity and robust external buffers.”
Beyond the improvement in external reserves, the think-tank said Nigeria had transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum products across West Africa, driven by the integration of domestic refining into the country’s petroleum supply chain.
It also stated that non-oil exports, particularly agricultural commodities, solid minerals, and industrial chemicals, had recorded significant growth, contributing to the diversification of the country’s export base.
IMPI stated that the reforms had strengthened international investor confidence, citing credit rating upgrades by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, which it said had helped reduce Nigeria’s international borrowing costs.
The group also linked the policy changes to historic gains recorded on the Nigerian Exchange, describing the developments as signs of improving investor sentiment and renewed confidence in the country’s economic prospects.
Kuni Tyessi
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