The Director-General of the International Air Transport Association, Willie Walsh, has warned that global jet fuel supply will take months to stabilise even if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, citing significant disruption to refining capacity across the Middle East.
Speaking to reporters in Singapore on April 8, Walsh said that while the reopening of the critical oil transit route could ease crude supply pressures, the downstream impact on refined products particularly aviation fuel would persist for an extended period.
His comments followed a sharp drop in oil prices, with crude plunging by as much as 16 per cent to below $100 per barrel after Donald Trump announced a tentative two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran. The deal, however, is contingent on the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway responsible for transporting roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.
Despite the potential easing in crude flows, Walsh emphasised that the damage already done to refining infrastructure in the Middle East would continue to constrain jet fuel availability.
“If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be,” he said. “This is due to the disruption to refining capacity in the Middle East, which is critical not just for jet fuel, but for other refined products as well.”
The ongoing conflict has already forced airlines particularly across Asia to adopt costly contingency measures. Carriers are cutting flights, carrying additional fuel from origin airports, and introducing refuelling stops to manage limited supply. These adjustments come as the aviation industry grapples with a doubling of jet fuel prices, intensifying operational pressures.
The strain is most acute in lower-income, import-dependent markets such as Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan. These countries have been hit hard after major exporters like China and Thailand halted jet fuel exports, while South Korea capped its shipments at 2025 levels.
Walsh noted that a resumption of crude oil flows could prompt key suppliers like China and South Korea to restart refined product exports, helping ease supply constraints. However, he cautioned that recovery would not be immediate.
“There is refining capacity available once we get crude flowing, but it will take time,” he said, adding that elevated crack spreads an indicator of refining margins could incentivise refineries to ramp up jet fuel production over time.
Airline executives echoed these concerns, warning that both supply shortages and elevated prices are likely to persist well beyond any ceasefire.
At the same IATA event, the chief executive of Malaysia Aviation Group, Nasaruddin Bakar, said stabilisation in fuel prices could take “many, many more months” even if hostilities cease.
Similarly, Thai Airways International CEO Chai Eamsiri described the current crisis as the worst oil shock of his nearly 40-year career, attributing the severity to widespread infrastructure damage.
“This is the worst one,” he said. “This time, it is about the infrastructure that was destroyed. It will take time to bring back supply, facilities, refineries, and the broader system.”
The ripple effects are already visible across the global aviation sector. Malaysia-based AirAsia X has increased fares by as much as 40 per cent and introduced higher fuel surcharges to offset rising costs.
In the United States, United Airlines has reduced capacity by about 5 per cent, while Air New Zealand has implemented additional flight cuts and fare increases to cope with sustained high oil prices.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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