Dangote Refinery has outlined the execution strategy behind its plan to scale up capacity from 650,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd, detailing how the facility intends to double output through a disciplined, fast-tracked expansion model rather than a redesign of the existing plant.
Speaking at the Dangote Refinery earlier this week, Chief Executive Officer David Bird explained that the expansion will be driven by what he described as “ruthless replication” — a deliberate decision to copy the current refinery design without alterations.
According to Bird, allowing extensive re-engineering during expansion projects often leads to delays, cost overruns and a return to lengthy detailed engineering phases, challenges that have undermined similar efforts by international oil companies.
He said, “Firstly, on the expansion, we’re talking here, a ruthless replication. This is a model that several other international oil companies have tried and failed. When you let the engineers go into an expansion, they often play around and it gets back to full detailed engineering.
“So the idea here is ruthless replication. We will not need to then tinker. We will not then need to re-engineer. So we can get straight into ordering the long lead items and commencing construction. We are firmly of the belief that we will be able to build this plant within three years.”
Bird said this approach underpins management’s confidence that the additional capacity can be delivered within three years. He outlined two major activities planned to run in parallel in the near term: procurement of long-lead equipment and early construction work on site.
In the immediate phase, the refinery plans to place orders for all major long-lead items, a process expected to be completed by the end of January. At the same time, piling and foundation work is set to begin before the end of the month, marking the physical start of the expansion.
A key advantage, Bird noted, is that the land required for the project has already been fully prepared. He explained that the site has been raised by more than a metre and reclaimed in advance, eliminating the lengthy site-preparation timelines typical of large industrial projects.
He stated, “In terms of milestones this year, two things in parallel. In the immediate term, we’ll be placing all of our long-lead procurement items which we aim to complete in the first month of 2026 and then as early as before the end of this month, starting some of our piling work (and)commencing some of our site preparation.
“Now, the incredible thing about this site and the vision of the President (Dangote), if you look at the landscape, you can see already that that land has been reclaimed and prepared and raised a meter and a half above where it was in the past.
“So, all of that land is now ready for the expansion. All that pre-investment has been done. So, none of the normal timeline that would come in a project execution. On site preparation has been done. We’re going to get straight into piling and beginning the foundations. That’ll be done this year in parallel with the procurement and then we expect to see steel coming out of the ground as early as the end of this year. Our belief is that we can bring this expansion online within 3 years.”
Beyond the expansion, Bird also addressed questions on plans to list part of the refinery, describing it as a core objective. He said the planned listing is intended to give Nigerians an opportunity to own a stake in the refinery, fostering a broader sense of participation in the project.
According to him, the listing is expected to begin with institutional investors before being opened to retail investors, with the process targeted for completion within the year. “First, obviously, institutional placement and then retail and we aim to do that within this year,” he said.
Melissa Enoch
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