A rapid Houthi advance in Yemen has exposed weaknesses in Saudi Arabia’s military strategy and raised fresh concerns over the kingdom’s ability to protect key oil and shipping routes, according to Western, regional and Yemeni officials and analysts.
The Iran-backed group this week captured territory and islands overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a major maritime route linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
The advance has also put Saudi-backed Yemeni forces under pressure and given the Houthis access to weapons and military equipment abandoned during the retreat, according to regional sources.
The breakthrough was driven by divisions among forces opposed to the Houthis, limited Saudi air support and what officials described as a failure to recognise the scale of the group’s preparations.
A Western diplomat said the Houthis had quietly built a force of about 100,000 fighters.
“Everyone, including the Saudis, missed this build-up and miscalculated the Houthis’ intentions,” the diplomat said.
Neil Quilliam, a fellow at Chatham House, described the development as a major intelligence failure.
“They just weren’t picking up the signal. They just weren’t seeing the signs,” Quilliam said.
Yemeni political analyst Farea Al-Muslimi said Saudi Arabia had been caught off guard.
“The Saudis were caught off guard in Yemen,” he said.
The collapse of Saudi-backed forces has left Riyadh seeking additional regional support as the Houthis gain territory from which they could threaten Saudi oil exports and shipping through the Red Sea.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman travelled to Cairo to discuss the situation after Washington declined to provide direct military support, according to regional sources.
Two sources said Riyadh wanted Egypt to participate in Red Sea operations, recalling Cairo’s role in securing the Bab el-Mandeb during the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen in 2015.
Egypt has not publicly confirmed whether it will provide military assistance.
The Houthis are also using their battlefield gains to push for political concessions, including restrictions on Saudi support for Yemen’s internationally recognised government and changes to access through Hodeidah port and Sanaa airport, according to former US negotiator Dennis Ross.
“I don’t think the Saudis can easily give in to the kinds of demands that they’re making,” Ross said.
The situation presents Riyadh with difficult choices. Allowing the Houthis to consolidate their gains could strengthen their negotiating position, while a wider Saudi military response could trigger attacks deeper inside the kingdom, a Gulf official said.
The capture of positions around Bab el-Mandeb could also increase the Houthis’ ability to project influence towards the Horn of Africa and strengthen Iran’s position around two important maritime routes when combined with Tehran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz.
The developments have raised questions about the reliability of Western security support for Saudi Arabia. Two Western officials said the United States and European countries were not prepared to provide direct military backing and had not joined a Saudi-led maritime defence coalition announced in July.
The setback comes as Iran and its regional allies seek to expand their influence during the wider US-Iran war.
Analysts say the Houthi advance gives Tehran and its allies greater leverage after Iran-backed groups have suffered setbacks in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.
“For Iran it’s a win-win-win,” Al-Muslimi said.
He said Washington’s decision not to intervene on Saudi Arabia’s behalf had also raised questions about the long-standing security relationship between Riyadh and Washington.
“The Americans are saying No,” Al-Muslimi said. “That kind of understanding in the relationship between Riyadh and Washington has never been tested more than now.”
Yemen’s history of resisting foreign military intervention could further complicate Saudi efforts to build a wider coalition against the Houthis.
Al-Muslimi said the experience of previous foreign interventions in Yemen had made regional powers cautious about becoming more deeply involved.
“Yemen is the Vietnam and Afghanistan of every power dragged into it,” he said.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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